NBA 2024-2025: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets Prediction

Oklahoma City Thunder

Home Team

80.0%

118.7 pts

Houston Rockets

Away Team

20.0%

107.9 pts

2025-03-03

Key Prediction Insights

The Oklahoma City Thunder are predicted to win against the Houston Rockets with an 80.0% probability. The expected score is 118.7 for the Thunder and 107.9 for the Rockets. The Thunder's starting lineup features Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Isaiah Hartenstein. The Rockets are expected to start with Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr., and Alperen Sengun.

Game Analysis

The Oklahoma City Thunder enter this matchup on a strong winning streak, having triumphed in their last three games against the San Antonio Spurs, Atlanta Hawks, and Brooklyn Nets. Their dynamic scoring ability was on display, with scores consistently above 125 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stands out with an average of over 32 points per game, bolstered by an impressive offensive rating of 128.9. The Thunder's starting five boast a balanced combination of offense and defense, with each player having a defensive rating under 109. On the other side, the Houston Rockets have had a mixed bag of results, securing two wins against the San Antonio Spurs and Milwaukee Bucks, but suffering a loss to the Sacramento Kings. Jalen Green leads the Rockets in scoring with an average of over 21 points per game, though his defensive rating is a concern at 113.0. The Rockets' starting five have shown resilience, but their collective defensive ratings suggest potential vulnerabilities against the Thunder's potent offense.

Final Prediction

The Oklahoma City Thunder's recent form and balanced team performance give them the edge in this matchup. Their ability to consistently score high while maintaining strong defensive play positions them favorably against the Rockets. A key factor to watch is how the Rockets' defense handles the offensive prowess of the Thunder, particularly Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who could be the difference-maker in this game.