Serie A 2024-2025: Napoli vs Milan Prediction

Napoli

Home Team
56%
VS

Milan

Away Team
22%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 29 19 7 3 65 27 38 64
2 Napoli 29 18 7 4 45 23 22 61
3 Atalanta 29 17 7 5 63 28 35 58
4 Bologna 29 14 11 4 49 34 15 53
5 Juventus 29 13 13 3 45 28 17 52
6 Lazio 29 15 6 8 50 41 9 51
7 Roma 29 14 7 8 44 30 14 49
8 Fiorentina 29 14 6 9 46 30 16 48
9 Milan 29 13 8 8 44 33 11 47
10 Udinese 29 11 7 11 35 39 -4 40
11 Torino 29 9 11 9 34 34 0 38
12 Genoa 29 8 11 10 28 37 -9 35
13 Como 29 7 8 14 35 46 -11 29
14 Verona 29 9 2 18 29 58 -29 29
15 Cagliari 29 6 8 15 28 44 -16 26
16 Lecce 29 6 7 16 21 48 -27 25
17 Parma 29 5 10 14 35 49 -14 25
18 Empoli 29 4 10 15 23 46 -23 22
19 Venezia 29 3 11 15 23 42 -19 20
20 Monza 29 2 9 18 24 49 -25 15

Recent Trends

Napoli ⚪ ✅ ⚪ ❌ ⚪

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Venezia (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Como (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 2)

Milan ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Como (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Lecce (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Napoli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.14
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.81
# Clean Sheets: 1

Milan

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.02
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.26
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli is poised to triumph in their upcoming clash against Milan, with a probability of victory standing at 56.0%. The match is also expected to feature over 2.5 goals, with a likelihood of 51.0%. Currently, Napoli sits comfortably in 2nd place in the Serie A standings, while Milan trails behind in 9th position, indicating a potential disparity in form and performance.

Match Analysis

In their recent outings, Napoli has displayed resilience and consistency. A hard-fought draw against league leaders Inter, following a win at home against Fiorentina, highlights their ability to perform against top-tier teams. Their defensive solidity is evident, having conceded an average of only 0.8 goals in their last five matches, underscored by an expected goals conceded rate of 0.812. This defensive prowess is complemented by their attacking efforts, with an average of 1.6 goals scored per game. On the other hand, Milan's form has been inconsistent. They secured wins against Como and Lecce but stumbled against Lazio. Their defense has been porous, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per match, which might pose challenges against Napoli's sharp attack. Despite this, Milan's capability to generate chances is not in question, as reflected by their expected goals of 2.022 in their recent matches. However, their failure to keep a clean sheet during this period could be a cause for concern going into this encounter.

Final Prediction

Napoli's superior league standing and recent form give them a distinct edge over Milan. The team's strong defensive record and ability to create scoring opportunities set them up as favorites for this encounter. A key factor to watch in this game will be Napoli's defensive discipline, which might be crucial in containing Milan's offensive threats and securing the predicted victory.