Serie A 2024-2025: Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction

Napoli

Home Team
76%
VS

Fiorentina

Away Team
11%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5: 37%
Under 2.5: 63%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 27 17 7 3 60 25 35 58
2 Napoli 27 17 6 4 43 22 21 57
3 Atalanta 27 16 7 4 59 26 33 55
4 Juventus 27 13 13 1 45 21 24 52
5 Lazio 27 15 5 7 49 35 14 50
6 Bologna 27 12 11 4 42 33 9 47
7 Fiorentina 27 13 6 8 42 28 14 45
8 Roma 27 12 7 8 42 30 12 43
9 Milan 27 11 8 8 39 30 9 41
10 Udinese 27 11 6 10 34 37 -3 39
11 Torino 27 8 10 9 31 32 -1 34
12 Genoa 27 7 10 10 25 35 -10 31
13 Como 27 7 7 13 33 43 -10 28
14 Verona 27 8 2 17 27 56 -29 26
15 Cagliari 27 6 7 14 27 42 -15 25
16 Lecce 27 6 7 14 18 43 -25 25
17 Parma 27 5 8 14 32 46 -14 23
18 Empoli 27 4 10 13 23 44 -21 22
19 Venezia 27 3 9 15 22 41 -19 18
20 Monza 27 2 8 17 21 45 -24 14

Recent Trends

Napoli ⚪ ❌ ⚪ ⚪ ⚪

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Como (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 1)

Fiorentina ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Como (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Inter (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Napoli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.06
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.69
# Clean Sheets: 0

Fiorentina

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.21
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.42
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli is predicted to emerge victorious in their upcoming matchup against Fiorentina, with a 76.0% probability of winning. Despite their recent challenges, Napoli's strong standing in the league at 2nd place, just one point behind Inter, reflects their overall solid performance this season. The game is also expected to result in under 2.5 goals, given the probability of over 2.5 goals is only 37.0%. Fiorentina, currently 7th in Serie A, faces an uphill battle against one of the top contenders in the league.

Match Analysis

Napoli's recent form has been mixed, with two draws and a loss in their last three matches. They held league leaders Inter to a 1-1 draw at home and drew 2-2 with Lazio but suffered a surprising 2-1 away loss to Como. Their recent performances show a defensive solidity, as they have only conceded an average of 0.6 goals over their last five games. However, they have not managed a clean sheet in this period, highlighting a potential area of vulnerability. Fiorentina's recent performances have been inconsistent, with a victory against Lecce overshadowed by back-to-back losses against Verona and Como. They have struggled to find the back of the net, failing to score in two of their last three games. Defensively, Fiorentina has been prone to conceding goals, reflected in their average of 1.6 goals conceded over the last five games. Despite keeping two clean sheets in that stretch, their defensive frailties could be a decisive factor against Napoli's attacking prowess.

Final Prediction

Napoli's edge in this matchup stems from their superior league position and their ability to create more scoring opportunities, as evidenced by their expected goals metrics. While both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, Napoli's overall consistency and stronger recent performances give them the upper hand. A key factor to watch during the game will be Napoli's ability to convert their expected goal opportunities into actual goals, which could be the difference in securing a win.