Serie A 2024-2025: Monza vs Parma Prediction

Monza

Home Team
26%
VS

Parma

Away Team
53%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 38%
Under 2.5: 62%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 28 18 7 3 63 27 36 61
2 Napoli 28 18 6 4 45 23 22 60
3 Atalanta 28 17 7 4 63 26 37 58
4 Juventus 28 13 13 2 45 25 20 52
5 Lazio 28 15 6 7 50 36 14 51
6 Bologna 28 13 11 4 44 34 10 50
7 Roma 28 13 7 8 43 30 13 46
8 Fiorentina 28 13 6 9 43 30 13 45
9 Milan 28 12 8 8 42 32 10 44
10 Udinese 28 11 7 10 35 38 -3 40
11 Torino 28 8 11 9 33 34 -1 35
12 Genoa 28 7 11 10 26 36 -10 32
13 Como 28 7 8 13 34 44 -10 29
14 Cagliari 28 6 8 14 28 43 -15 26
15 Verona 28 8 2 18 28 58 -30 26
16 Lecce 28 6 7 15 20 46 -26 25
17 Parma 28 5 9 14 34 48 -14 24
18 Empoli 28 4 10 14 23 45 -22 22
19 Venezia 28 3 10 15 23 42 -19 19
20 Monza 28 2 8 18 23 48 -25 14

Recent Trends

Monza ❌ ❌ ❌ ⚪ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 5)

Parma ⚪ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Monza

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.74
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.16
# Clean Sheets: 1

Parma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.89
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.78
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Monza and Parma is predicted to be in favor of the visitors, Parma, who have a 53.0% probability of securing a victory. Monza, currently languishing at the bottom of the Serie A standings, holds a 26.0% chance of winning. The match is also anticipated to feature under 2.5 goals, with a 38.0% probability of exceeding that goal count. Parma sits in 17th place, battling to escape the relegation zone, making this encounter crucial for both sides.

Match Analysis

Monza's recent form has been troubling, with three consecutive losses against Inter, Torino, and Roma. They have managed to score only two goals while conceding nine across these fixtures. Their attack has struggled, averaging just 0.6 goals per match in the last five games, which aligns with their expected goals metric of 0.738. Defensively, Monza has been slightly more stable, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game, with one clean sheet in their recent five outings. Parma, on the other hand, has shown mixed results in their last three games. They secured a significant win against Bologna and managed a draw against Torino, though they suffered a narrow defeat to Udinese. Parma's offensive output is similar to Monza's, averaging 0.6 goals per game. However, their expected goals scored is slightly higher at 0.892. Defensively, they have been more porous, conceding 1.4 goals on average, which is supported by their higher expected goals conceded of 1.776. These statistics indicate that while Parma might have defensive vulnerabilities, their attacking potential is marginally better than Monza's.

Final Prediction

Parma's slight edge in attacking metrics and their recent win against Bologna suggest they have the capability to capitalize on Monza's struggles. Monza's inability to secure points in recent games further tilts the balance in Parma's favor. A key factor to watch will be Parma's ability to exploit Monza's defensive frailties, potentially securing a crucial away win to bolster their fight against relegation.