Serie A 2024-2025: Milan vs Lazio Prediction

Milan

Home Team
40%
VS

Lazio

Away Team
35%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 26 17 6 3 59 24 35 57
2 Napoli 26 17 5 4 42 21 21 56
3 Atalanta 26 16 6 4 59 26 33 54
4 Juventus 26 12 13 1 43 21 22 49
5 Lazio 26 14 5 7 47 34 13 47
6 Bologna 26 11 11 4 40 32 8 44
7 Fiorentina 26 12 6 8 41 28 13 42
8 Milan 26 11 8 7 38 28 10 41
9 Roma 26 11 7 8 40 29 11 40
10 Udinese 26 10 6 10 33 37 -4 36
11 Torino 26 7 10 9 29 32 -3 31
12 Genoa 26 7 9 10 24 34 -10 30
13 Como 26 7 7 12 32 41 -9 28
14 Verona 26 8 2 16 27 54 -27 26
15 Cagliari 26 6 7 13 26 40 -14 25
16 Lecce 26 6 7 13 18 42 -24 25
17 Parma 26 5 8 13 32 45 -13 23
18 Empoli 26 4 9 13 22 43 -21 21
19 Venezia 26 3 8 15 22 41 -19 17
20 Monza 26 2 8 16 21 43 -22 14

Recent Trends

Milan ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Empoli (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 1)

Lazio ⚪ ⚪ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Venezia (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Monza (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Milan

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.06
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.23
# Clean Sheets: 2

Lazio

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.60
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.33
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Milan and Lazio promises to be an intriguing encounter, with a 40% probability tipping the scales in favor of a Milan victory at home. Lazio follows closely with a 35% chance of securing their triumph, while the draw stands at 25%. Both teams are situated in the upper half of the Serie A standings, with Milan positioned 8th and Lazio in 5th place. A high-scoring affair is anticipated, as the probability of the match producing over 2.5 goals is a solid 61%.

Match Analysis

Milan's recent form has seen a mix of results, with a home victory against Verona (1-0) being overshadowed by consecutive away defeats to Bologna and Torino, both ending 1-2. This inconsistency is reflected in their average goals scored (1.4) and conceded (1.0) over the last five matches. Despite this, Milan's expected goals (xG) metrics indicate a potential for more attacking prowess, averaging 2.064 xG, suggesting they might find the net more frequently than recent scores suggest. Lazio, on the other hand, has shown resilience, recording a solid win against Monza (5-1) and holding Napoli to a 2-2 draw, while settling for a goalless draw at Venezia. With a similar average of 1.4 goals scored per game in recent outings, they have conceded slightly less (0.8), indicating a relatively sturdy defense. Their expected goals against (xGA) of 1.328 suggests a slight vulnerability in their defense that Milan could exploit.

Final Prediction

Milan's predicted edge in this match is underpinned by their superior expected goals metric, hinting at an offensive capacity that could unsettle Lazio's defense. The key factor to watch will be whether Milan can convert their attacking potential into goals, overcoming Lazio's recent defensive solidity. This match-up promises an exciting contest with both teams eager to solidify their standings in the Serie A table.