Serie A 2024-2025: Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction

Milan

Home Team
74%
VS

Fiorentina

Away Team
12%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 30 20 7 3 67 28 39 67
2 Napoli 30 19 7 4 47 24 23 64
3 Atalanta 30 17 7 6 63 29 34 58
4 Bologna 30 15 11 4 50 34 16 56
5 Juventus 30 14 13 3 46 28 18 55
6 Roma 30 15 7 8 45 30 15 52
7 Lazio 30 15 7 8 51 42 9 52
8 Fiorentina 30 15 6 9 47 30 17 51
9 Milan 30 13 8 9 45 35 10 47
10 Udinese 30 11 7 12 36 41 -5 40
11 Torino 30 9 12 9 35 35 0 39
12 Genoa 30 8 11 11 28 38 -10 35
13 Como 30 7 9 14 36 47 -11 30
14 Verona 30 9 3 18 29 58 -29 30
15 Cagliari 30 7 8 15 31 44 -13 29
16 Parma 30 5 11 14 35 49 -14 26
17 Lecce 30 6 7 17 21 49 -28 25
18 Empoli 30 4 11 15 24 47 -23 23
19 Venezia 30 3 11 16 23 43 -20 20
20 Monza 30 2 9 19 24 52 -28 15

Recent Trends

Milan ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Como (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Lecce (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 2)

Fiorentina ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Milan

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.73
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.62
# Clean Sheets: 0

Fiorentina

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.21
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.65
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Milan and Fiorentina promises to be an intriguing fixture. With a 74.0% probability of victory, Milan is the clear favorite to emerge triumphant at home. The match is also predicted to have less than 2.5 goals, with a 46.0% chance for an under result. In the Serie A standings, Fiorentina sits in 8th position with 51 points, while Milan is close behind in 9th with 47 points.

Match Analysis

Both teams have displayed contrasting forms in their recent outings. Milan has shown resilience with two wins in their last three encounters, overcoming Como and Lecce, but faltered against Napoli. Their offensive line has been reasonably productive, averaging 1.6 goals per game, though defensively, they have yet to secure a clean sheet in recent matches. Their expected goals statistics suggest they might be slightly underperforming in terms of hitting the back of the net. On the other hand, Fiorentina has been solid, registering impressive wins against Atalanta and Juventus, both without conceding a goal, though they suffered a defeat against Napoli. Despite a lower average of goals scored at 1.0 per game, Fiorentina's defense has been tighter, with three clean sheets in their last five matches. However, they still concede an average of 1.6 goals per game, suggesting potential vulnerabilities Milan could exploit.

Final Prediction

Milan's home advantage and recent attacking form give them a discernible edge in this matchup against Fiorentina. The key factor to watch will be whether Milan can convert their expected goals into actual goals against a Fiorentina side that has been defensively robust but not impregnable. Fans should keep an eye on Milan's ability to break down Fiorentina's defense, which could be crucial for the final outcome.