Serie A 2024-2025: Milan vs Atalanta Prediction

Milan

Home Team
34%
VS

Atalanta

Away Team
43%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 32 21 8 3 72 31 41 71
2 Napoli 32 20 8 4 51 25 26 68
3 Atalanta 32 18 7 7 65 30 35 61
4 Juventus 32 15 14 3 49 30 19 59
5 Bologna 32 15 12 5 51 37 14 57
6 Lazio 32 16 8 8 53 43 10 56
7 Roma 32 15 9 8 47 32 15 54
8 Fiorentina 32 15 8 9 49 32 17 53
9 Milan 32 14 9 9 51 37 14 51
10 Torino 32 9 13 10 36 37 -1 40
11 Udinese 32 11 7 14 36 46 -10 40
12 Genoa 32 9 12 11 29 38 -9 39
13 Como 32 9 9 14 40 48 -8 36
14 Verona 32 9 5 18 30 59 -29 32
15 Cagliari 32 7 9 16 32 47 -15 30
16 Parma 32 5 13 14 37 51 -14 28
17 Lecce 32 6 8 18 23 52 -29 26
18 Venezia 32 4 12 16 25 44 -19 24
19 Empoli 32 4 12 16 24 50 -26 24
20 Monza 32 2 9 21 25 56 -31 15

Recent Trends

Milan ✅ ⚪ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Udinese (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Como (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Lecce (Goals: 3 - 2)

Atalanta ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Juventus (Goals: 4 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Milan

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.62
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.86
# Clean Sheets: 1

Atalanta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.11
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.23
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Milan and Atalanta is tipped in favor of the visitors, with Atalanta having a 43.0% probability of winning the match. Meanwhile, Milan's chances stand at 34.0%, with a draw being the least likely outcome at 23.0%. Both teams are expected to deliver a goal-rich encounter, as there is a 56.0% probability for over 2.5 goals being scored. Currently, Atalanta is vying for a top-four finish from the 3rd position in Serie A, while Milan is in 9th place, striving to climb up the standings.

Match Analysis

Milan's recent form has been mixed, with a win, a draw, and a loss in their last three outings. A notable performance was their emphatic 4-0 away victory against Udinese, showcasing their attacking capabilities. However, inconsistency has shadowed their campaign, as seen in the 2-2 home draw against Fiorentina and a narrow 2-1 defeat to Napoli. They have averaged 1.4 goals per match in their last five games but have shown vulnerability at the back, conceding 1.2 goals on average. Atalanta, on the other hand, have performed commendably, although they have also tasted defeat twice recently. They secured a solid 2-0 home win against Bologna, but narrow losses to Lazio and Fiorentina indicate potential areas of improvement. Atalanta boasts a higher average of 3.2 goals scored per game in their last five matches, accompanied by a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.4 goals per game. Their expected goals metrics further underscore their attacking prowess, indicating a team well-equipped to challenge Milan.

Final Prediction

Atalanta's edge in this encounter stems from their superior goal-scoring form and defensive solidity. Their ability to score freely and maintain a tight defense gives them a distinct advantage over a Milan side still searching for consistency. A key factor to watch will be Atalanta's attacking transitions, which have been instrumental in their goal-scoring exploits. With a higher probability of over 2.5 goals, fans can anticipate an exciting and dynamic match.