Serie A 2024-2025: Lecce vs Roma Prediction

Lecce

Home Team
4%
VS

Roma

Away Team
91%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 29 19 7 3 65 27 38 64
2 Napoli 29 18 7 4 45 23 22 61
3 Atalanta 29 17 7 5 63 28 35 58
4 Bologna 29 14 11 4 49 34 15 53
5 Juventus 29 13 13 3 45 28 17 52
6 Lazio 29 15 6 8 50 41 9 51
7 Roma 29 14 7 8 44 30 14 49
8 Fiorentina 29 14 6 9 46 30 16 48
9 Milan 29 13 8 8 44 33 11 47
10 Udinese 29 11 7 11 35 39 -4 40
11 Torino 29 9 11 9 34 34 0 38
12 Genoa 29 8 11 10 28 37 -9 35
13 Como 29 7 8 14 35 46 -11 29
14 Verona 29 9 2 18 29 58 -29 29
15 Cagliari 29 6 8 15 28 44 -16 26
16 Lecce 29 6 7 16 21 48 -27 25
17 Parma 29 5 10 14 35 49 -14 25
18 Empoli 29 4 10 15 23 46 -23 22
19 Venezia 29 3 11 15 23 42 -19 20
20 Monza 29 2 9 18 24 49 -25 15

Recent Trends

Lecce ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ⚪

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Monza (Goals: 0 - 0)

Roma ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Empoli (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Como (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Monza (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lecce

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.76
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.86
# Clean Sheets: 1

Roma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.15
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.88
# Clean Sheets: 4

Key Prediction Insights

Roma is heavily favored to secure a victory against Lecce, with a commanding 91.0% probability of winning, compared to Lecce's slim 4.0% chance. The likelihood of a draw is pegged at 5.0%. In terms of league standings, Roma sits in 7th place with 49 points, while Lecce is struggling near the relegation zone in 16th position with 25 points. The predicted outcome suggests a match with fewer than 2.5 goals, as the chances of this occurring are 44.0%.

Match Analysis

Lecce has had a tough run in their last three matches, suffering consecutive losses against Genoa, Milan, and Fiorentina. They have managed to score only three goals while conceding six across these games. Despite their struggles, Lecce's defense has failed to hold firm, with an average of 1.6 goals conceded per match in their recent performances. Their expected goals conceded is notably high at 1.86, indicating a defense that is easily breached. On the other hand, Roma comes into this match on a winning streak, having triumphed over Cagliari, Empoli, and Como. They have been able to maintain a strong defensive record, keeping clean sheets in two of their last three games. The team averages 1.4 goals scored per match and has a robust expected goals tally of 2.152. This indicates Roma's attacking prowess and their potential to control the game against a weaker Lecce side.

Final Prediction

Roma's recent form and superior defensive capabilities give them a clear advantage in this matchup. Their ability to keep clean sheets and capitalize on scoring opportunities makes them the favorites to win. A key factor to watch during the game will be Roma's defense, as their ability to prevent Lecce from scoring could be crucial in securing a straightforward victory.