Serie A 2024-2025: Lecce vs Milan Prediction

Lecce

Home Team
9%
VS

Milan

Away Team
82%
Draw: 8%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 27 17 7 3 60 25 35 58
2 Napoli 27 17 6 4 43 22 21 57
3 Atalanta 27 16 7 4 59 26 33 55
4 Juventus 27 13 13 1 45 21 24 52
5 Lazio 27 15 5 7 49 35 14 50
6 Bologna 27 12 11 4 42 33 9 47
7 Fiorentina 27 13 6 8 42 28 14 45
8 Roma 27 12 7 8 42 30 12 43
9 Milan 27 11 8 8 39 30 9 41
10 Udinese 27 11 6 10 34 37 -3 39
11 Torino 27 8 10 9 31 32 -1 34
12 Genoa 27 7 10 10 25 35 -10 31
13 Como 27 7 7 13 33 43 -10 28
14 Verona 27 8 2 17 27 56 -29 26
15 Cagliari 27 6 7 14 27 42 -15 25
16 Lecce 27 6 7 14 18 43 -25 25
17 Parma 27 5 8 14 32 46 -14 23
18 Empoli 27 4 10 13 23 44 -21 22
19 Venezia 27 3 9 15 22 41 -19 18
20 Monza 27 2 8 17 21 45 -24 14

Recent Trends

Lecce ❌ ❌ ⚪ ⚪ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Monza (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Parma (Goals: 3 - 1)

Milan ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Empoli (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lecce

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.74
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.59
# Clean Sheets: 2

Milan

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.65
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.35
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Serie A clash between Lecce and Milan is expected to heavily favor the visitors. Milan has an 82.0% probability of securing a victory, while Lecce's chances stand at a mere 9.0%. With Milan sitting in 9th place and Lecce in 16th, the predicted result leans toward a Milan win with more than 2.5 goals likely to be scored, as evidenced by a 54.0% probability for over 2.5 goals.

Match Analysis

Lecce enters this match with a mixed bag of recent performances. In their last three games, they've struggled offensively, failing to score a single goal and managing only a draw against Monza, while losing narrowly to Fiorentina and Udinese. Their defense has kept two clean sheets in the last five matches, but with an average of 1.4 goals conceded per game, they remain vulnerable. Milan's recent form has also been underwhelming, with three consecutive losses against Lazio, Bologna, and Torino. Despite scoring in each of these matches, they've consistently conceded two goals per game. Milan's attack, however, shows potential with an average of 1.2 goals scored per match in their last five outings and a slightly higher expected goals metric of 1.654. Their defense has its moments, registering two clean sheets in recent encounters.

Final Prediction

Milan's superior attacking metrics and league standing give them a clear edge over Lecce. While both teams have struggled recently, Milan's ability to create scoring opportunities could prove decisive. A key factor to watch will be Milan's attacking efficiency against Lecce's defense, which has shown resilience at times but can be breached.