Serie A 2024-2025: Juventus vs Genoa Prediction

Juventus

Home Team
85%
VS

Genoa

Away Team
6%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 29 19 7 3 65 27 38 64
2 Napoli 29 18 7 4 45 23 22 61
3 Atalanta 29 17 7 5 63 28 35 58
4 Bologna 29 14 11 4 49 34 15 53
5 Juventus 29 13 13 3 45 28 17 52
6 Lazio 29 15 6 8 50 41 9 51
7 Roma 29 14 7 8 44 30 14 49
8 Fiorentina 29 14 6 9 46 30 16 48
9 Milan 29 13 8 8 44 33 11 47
10 Udinese 29 11 7 11 35 39 -4 40
11 Torino 29 9 11 9 34 34 0 38
12 Genoa 29 8 11 10 28 37 -9 35
13 Como 29 7 8 14 35 46 -11 29
14 Verona 29 9 2 18 29 58 -29 29
15 Cagliari 29 6 8 15 28 44 -16 26
16 Lecce 29 6 7 16 21 48 -27 25
17 Parma 29 5 10 14 35 49 -14 25
18 Empoli 29 4 10 15 23 46 -23 22
19 Venezia 29 3 11 15 23 42 -19 20
20 Monza 29 2 9 18 24 49 -25 15

Recent Trends

Juventus ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 0)

Genoa ✅ ⚪ ⚪ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Empoli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Venezia (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Juventus

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.57
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.69
# Clean Sheets: 3

Genoa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.14
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.07
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Juventus and Genoa is heavily tilted in favor of the home team, with an 85.0% probability of Juventus securing the win. Despite Genoa's efforts, they only have a 6.0% chance of victory. The likelihood of the match ending in a draw stands at 9.0%. Juventus, currently in 5th place in Serie A, will look to consolidate their position against 12th-placed Genoa. The game is predicted to have under 2.5 goals, with a 50.0% probability for this outcome.

Match Analysis

Both teams enter the match with contrasting recent performances. Juventus managed a crucial 2-0 victory at home against Verona, recovering from back-to-back losses against Fiorentina and Atalanta, where they failed to score. On the other hand, Genoa has shown resilience with a win against Lecce and draws against Cagliari and Empoli, demonstrating a knack for grinding out results. Analyzing the advanced metrics, Juventus has scored an average of 1.8 goals in their last five matches while maintaining a strong defense, conceding just 1.0 goals on average and keeping three clean sheets. Their expected goals and expected goals conceded metrics suggest a balanced approach in both attack and defense. In contrast, Genoa has struggled to find the back of the net, averaging only 0.8 goals per game. Their defense has been leaky, conceding an average of 1.6 goals, although their expected goals conceded is slightly better, indicating performance room for improvement.

Final Prediction

Juventus is favored to win primarily due to their superior recent form and defensive solidity. Their ability to keep clean sheets and score consistently gives them an edge over Genoa. A key factor to watch in this match will be Juventus' defensive organization, which could be crucial in maintaining their advantage and securing all three points.