Serie A 2024-2025: Genoa vs Lecce Prediction

Genoa

Home Team
70%
VS

Lecce

Away Team
14%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 28 18 7 3 63 27 36 61
2 Napoli 28 18 6 4 45 23 22 60
3 Atalanta 28 17 7 4 63 26 37 58
4 Juventus 28 13 13 2 45 25 20 52
5 Lazio 28 15 6 7 50 36 14 51
6 Bologna 28 13 11 4 44 34 10 50
7 Roma 28 13 7 8 43 30 13 46
8 Fiorentina 28 13 6 9 43 30 13 45
9 Milan 28 12 8 8 42 32 10 44
10 Udinese 28 11 7 10 35 38 -3 40
11 Torino 28 8 11 9 33 34 -1 35
12 Genoa 28 7 11 10 26 36 -10 32
13 Como 28 7 8 13 34 44 -10 29
14 Cagliari 28 6 8 14 28 43 -15 26
15 Verona 28 8 2 18 28 58 -30 26
16 Lecce 28 6 7 15 20 46 -26 25
17 Parma 28 5 9 14 34 48 -14 24
18 Empoli 28 4 10 14 23 45 -22 22
19 Venezia 28 3 10 15 23 42 -19 19
20 Monza 28 2 8 18 23 48 -25 14

Recent Trends

Genoa ⚪ ⚪ ❌ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Empoli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Venezia (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 1)

Lecce ❌ ❌ ❌ ⚪ ⚪

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Monza (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Genoa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.48
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.72
# Clean Sheets: 1

Lecce

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.99
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.88
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Serie A clash between Genoa and Lecce sees Genoa as the predicted victor with a 70% probability of winning. The likelihood of the match ending in a draw is 17%, while Lecce's chances of clinching a victory stand at just 14%. With Genoa sitting in 12th place and Lecce in 16th, the statistics suggest a game that might not feature many goals, with a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals, indicating a likely outcome of under 2.5 goals.

Match Analysis

Genoa enters this fixture with a mixed bag of recent performances. They have drawn their last two matches against Cagliari and Empoli, both ending 1-1, and suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat to Inter. Despite not having secured a win in their last three outings, Genoa displays defensive resilience, conceding an average of 0.6 goals per game in their last five. Their ability to create chances is reflected in their expected goals metric of 1.476, which suggests they are capable of finding the net. In contrast, Lecce has been struggling, evidenced by their three consecutive losses against Milan, Fiorentina, and Udinese. Although they managed to score twice against Milan, their defensive frailties are apparent, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game recently. Lecce's expected goals conceded rate of 1.88 highlights their vulnerability at the back, which Genoa will likely seek to exploit.

Final Prediction

Genoa's edge in this encounter is underscored by their stronger defensive record and more consistent performance metrics. Their ability to limit opposition goals provides a solid platform to build on, especially against a Lecce side battling defensively. A key factor to watch will be how effectively Genoa can transform their expected goals into actual goals, potentially capitalizing on Lecce's defensive lapses.