Serie A 2024-2025: Fiorentina vs Lecce Prediction

Fiorentina

Home Team
85%
VS

Lecce

Away Team
6%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 26 17 6 3 59 24 35 57
2 Napoli 26 17 5 4 42 21 21 56
3 Atalanta 26 16 6 4 59 26 33 54
4 Juventus 26 12 13 1 43 21 22 49
5 Lazio 26 14 5 7 47 34 13 47
6 Fiorentina 26 12 6 8 41 28 13 42
7 Milan 25 11 8 6 37 26 11 41
8 Bologna 25 10 11 4 38 31 7 41
9 Roma 26 11 7 8 40 29 11 40
10 Udinese 26 10 6 10 33 37 -4 36
11 Torino 26 7 10 9 29 32 -3 31
12 Genoa 26 7 9 10 24 34 -10 30
13 Como 26 7 7 12 32 41 -9 28
14 Verona 26 8 2 16 27 54 -27 26
15 Cagliari 26 6 7 13 26 40 -14 25
16 Lecce 26 6 7 13 18 42 -24 25
17 Parma 26 5 8 13 32 45 -13 23
18 Empoli 26 4 9 13 22 43 -21 21
19 Venezia 26 3 8 15 22 41 -19 17
20 Monza 26 2 8 16 21 43 -22 14

Recent Trends

Fiorentina ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Como (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Inter (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 1)

Lecce ❌ ⚪ ⚪ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Monza (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Parma (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fiorentina

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.98
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.12
# Clean Sheets: 1

Lecce

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.86
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.04
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

In the upcoming clash between Fiorentina and Lecce, Fiorentina is heavily favored to secure a victory with a substantial 85% probability. The game is expected to have fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 44% probability leaning towards a low-scoring affair. Currently, Fiorentina sits in 6th place in Serie A, while Lecce is positioned at 16th, highlighting the disparity between the two teams' performances this season.

Match Analysis

Recent performances for both teams have been lackluster. Fiorentina has suffered three consecutive losses, including a disappointing home defeat against Como and a close loss to league leaders Inter. This streak highlights their current struggles, particularly in front of goal, where they have only scored once in these matches. Their advanced metrics indicate an average of 1.2 goals scored per game, but with a troubling tendency to concede 1.4 goals, suggesting vulnerabilities in defense. Lecce, on the other hand, has managed to secure two draws in their last three matches, albeit goalless ones, showcasing a solid defensive stand after their loss to Udinese. While they average 1.4 goals scored over the last five games, their expected goals conceded stand at 2.044, indicating potential defensive frailties when faced with more potent attacks. Their ability to keep two clean sheets recently may be crucial against Fiorentina's offensive threats.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina holds a clear edge in this matchup due to their higher league standing and superior overall play throughout the season. Despite recent challenges, their ability to turn opportunities into goals could be the deciding factor. Watch out for Fiorentina's attack to break through Lecce's defense, which, while recently resilient, might struggle against higher-caliber opposition.