Premier League 2024-2025: Southampton vs Aston Villa Prediction

Southampton

Home Team
8%
VS

Aston Villa

Away Team
84%
Draw: 8%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Liverpool 31 22 7 2 72 30 42 73
2 Arsenal 31 17 11 3 56 26 30 62
3 Nott'm Forest 31 17 6 8 51 37 14 57
4 Chelsea 31 15 8 8 54 37 17 53
5 Newcastle 30 16 5 9 52 39 13 53
6 Man City 31 15 7 9 57 40 17 52
7 Aston Villa 31 14 9 8 46 46 0 51
8 Fulham 31 13 9 9 47 42 5 48
9 Brighton 31 12 11 8 49 47 2 47
10 Bournemouth 31 12 9 10 51 40 11 45
11 Crystal Palace 30 11 10 9 39 35 4 43
12 Brentford 31 12 6 13 51 47 4 42
13 Man United 31 10 8 13 37 41 -4 38
14 Tottenham 31 11 4 16 58 45 13 37
15 Everton 31 7 14 10 33 38 -5 35
16 West Ham 31 9 8 14 35 52 -17 35
17 Wolves 31 9 5 17 43 59 -16 32
18 Ipswich 31 4 8 19 31 65 -34 20
19 Leicester 31 4 5 22 25 70 -45 17
20 Southampton 31 2 4 25 23 74 -51 10

Recent Trends

Southampton ❌ ⚪ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Chelsea (Goals: 0 - 4)

Aston Villa ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Brighton (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Brentford (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Southampton

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.78
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.35
# Clean Sheets: 0

Aston Villa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.03
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.77
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Southampton and Aston Villa is predicted to heavily favor Aston Villa, with an 84.0% probability of an away victory. Meanwhile, Southampton's chances of securing a win at home stand at a mere 8.0%. The likelihood of the match ending in a draw is also 8.0%. Given the current standing, Southampton is at the bottom of the Premier League table, while Aston Villa holds a respectable 7th place. Additionally, there is a 56.0% probability that the match will feature over 2.5 goals.

Match Analysis

Southampton's recent performances have been challenging, with their last three games resulting in a draw and two losses. They managed to salvage a point against Crystal Palace but were defeated by both Tottenham and Wolves. Their defensive frailties have been exposed, conceding an average of 2.6 goals per game in their last five outings, without securing a single clean sheet. Offensively, they have struggled as well, scoring only 0.8 goals per game on average, which is reflected in their poor standing in the league. In contrast, Aston Villa comes into this match with a strong run of form, winning their last three games. Victories against Nott'm Forest, Brighton, and Brentford show a team in good form, particularly with two clean sheets in those matches. Aston Villa's attack has been more productive, averaging 1.4 goals per game in their last five, and their defense has been relatively solid, conceding 1.6 goals on average. These metrics indicate a team that is both defensively resilient and capable of finding the back of the net.

Final Prediction

Aston Villa's superior form and defensive solidity give them a clear edge in this contest. Southampton's struggles, particularly in defense, make it challenging for them to secure a favorable result. A key factor to watch during the game will be Aston Villa's attacking prowess against Southampton's porous defense, which could be the decisive element in the predicted outcome of this matchup.