Ligue 1 2024-2025: Toulouse vs Lille Prediction

Toulouse

Home Team
37%
VS

Lille

Away Team
39%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 28 23 5 0 80 26 54 74
2 Marseille 28 16 4 8 57 38 19 52
3 Monaco 28 15 5 8 54 35 19 50
4 Strasbourg 28 14 7 7 46 35 11 49
5 Lyon 28 14 6 8 54 38 16 48
6 Nice 28 13 8 7 52 35 17 47
7 Lille 28 13 8 7 42 30 12 47
8 Brest 28 13 4 11 44 43 1 43
9 Lens 28 12 6 10 32 30 2 42
10 Auxerre 28 10 8 10 39 39 0 38
11 Toulouse 28 9 7 12 37 36 1 34
12 Rennes 28 10 2 16 38 38 0 32
13 Nantes 28 7 9 12 33 47 -14 30
14 Angers 28 7 6 15 26 46 -20 27
15 Le Havre 28 8 3 17 31 57 -26 27
16 Reims 28 6 8 14 29 42 -13 26
17 St Etienne 28 6 5 17 28 64 -36 23
18 Montpellier 28 4 3 21 21 64 -43 15

Recent Trends

Toulouse ❌ ❌ ❌ ⚪ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 4 - 0)

Lille ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Montpellier (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.42
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.05
# Clean Sheets: 1

Lille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.79
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.80
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Toulouse and Lille presents a closely contested scenario, with Lille having a slight edge with a 39% probability of winning, while Toulouse has a 37% chance of taking the victory. A draw stands at a 24% probability. Currently, Lille is positioned 7th in the Ligue 1 standings, whereas Toulouse is at 11th. The match is predicted to have more than 2.5 goals, with a 53% probability of such an outcome.

Match Analysis

Toulouse enters this fixture on the back of a three-game losing streak, suffering defeats against Marseille, Brest, and Strasbourg. They've managed to score consistently, with two goals against both Marseille and Brest, but their defense has been leaky, conceding a total of nine goals in these matches. Toulouse's recent performance metrics indicate an average goal-scoring rate of 1.0 per game, while conceding 1.8 goals on average, which highlights their defensive vulnerabilities. Lille, on the other hand, has had a mixed bag of results in their last three outings, with a win against Lens and losses to Lyon and Nantes. They have been somewhat more defensively solid compared to Toulouse, achieving two clean sheets in their last five matches. Lille's offensive metrics are slightly better, with an average expected goals score of 1.79, suggesting they often create more quality chances than they convert. This could be pivotal in a closely matched game.

Final Prediction

Lille's slight edge in predicted probabilities and their better recent defensive record gives them an advantage going into this match. The key factor to watch will be Lille's ability to convert chances, as their slight superiority in expected goals could be the differentiator in a match expected to see over 2.5 goals. As both teams have shown defensive frailties, a high-scoring encounter could be on the cards.