Ligue 1 2024-2025: Toulouse vs Brest Prediction

Toulouse

Home Team
53%
VS

Brest

Away Team
24%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 26 21 5 0 73 25 48 68
2 Marseille 26 15 4 7 53 33 20 49
3 Monaco 26 14 5 7 51 32 19 47
4 Nice 26 13 8 5 50 31 19 47
5 Lyon 26 13 6 7 50 33 17 45
6 Lille 26 12 8 6 40 28 12 44
7 Strasbourg 26 12 7 7 41 33 8 43
8 Lens 26 11 6 9 31 29 2 39
9 Brest 26 11 4 11 38 40 -2 37
10 Toulouse 26 9 7 10 33 29 4 34
11 Auxerre 26 8 8 10 37 39 -2 32
12 Rennes 26 9 2 15 35 37 -2 29
13 Nantes 26 6 9 11 29 43 -14 27
14 Angers 26 7 6 13 26 42 -16 27
15 Reims 26 5 8 13 26 40 -14 23
16 St Etienne 26 6 5 15 27 57 -30 23
17 Le Havre 26 6 3 17 26 55 -29 21
18 Montpellier 26 4 3 19 21 61 -40 15

Recent Trends

Toulouse ❌ ⚪ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Le Havre (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 1)

Brest ⚪ ✅ ❌ ⚪ ⚪

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Reims (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Auxerre (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.17
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.01
# Clean Sheets: 1

Brest

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.83
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.28
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Toulouse and Brest is anticipated to be an intriguing encounter, with a 53.0% probability favoring a home victory for Toulouse. The match is also expected to feature over 2.5 goals, with a 53.0% chance of that outcome. In terms of the league standings, Brest sits in 9th position with 37 points, while Toulouse is currently in 10th place with 34 points.

Match Analysis

In recent matches, Toulouse has displayed a mixed form, with a win, a draw, and a loss in their last three games. They secured a convincing 4-0 victory against Angers away from home, but suffered a 2-1 defeat at Strasbourg and managed a 1-1 stalemate with Monaco at home. This inconsistency is mirrored in their advanced metrics, as they have only averaged 0.8 goals scored per game in their last five matches, while conceding 1.4 goals on average. Despite a relatively low expected goals figure of 1.166, they have managed one clean sheet in recent outings, indicating a potential for defensive resilience. Brest, on the other hand, comes into this match with a slightly better form, having achieved a win, a draw, and a loss in their last three games. They triumphed over Angers with a 2-0 scoreline and held Reims to a goalless draw at home but fell short in a 2-1 loss away to Lyon. Brest's advanced metrics suggest a more potent attacking threat, with an average of 1.2 goals scored in their last five matches and a promising expected goals figure of 1.828. Defensively, they have been more solid than their opponents, conceding only 0.6 goals on average and securing three clean sheets in their recent games.

Final Prediction

Toulouse's slight edge in this match prediction is largely due to their home advantage and the probability statistics favoring their victory. However, Brest's robust defensive record and higher expected goals metrics pose a significant challenge. A key factor to watch will be how Toulouse's attack can break down Brest's resilient defense, especially given Brest's ability to keep clean sheets and their recent defensive performances.