Ligue 1 2024-2025: Montpellier vs Rennes Prediction

Montpellier

Home Team
12%
VS

Rennes

Away Team
76%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 23 18 5 0 62 22 40 59
2 Marseille 23 14 4 5 50 29 21 46
3 Nice 23 12 7 4 46 27 19 43
4 Lille 23 11 8 4 38 23 15 41
5 Monaco 23 12 4 7 45 31 14 40
6 Lyon 23 10 6 7 42 30 12 36
7 Strasbourg 23 9 7 7 37 32 5 34
8 Lens 23 9 6 8 26 25 1 33
9 Brest 23 10 3 10 35 38 -3 33
10 Toulouse 23 8 6 9 27 26 1 30
11 Auxerre 23 7 7 9 34 37 -3 28
12 Angers 23 7 6 10 26 34 -8 27
13 Rennes 23 8 2 13 30 32 -2 26
14 Nantes 23 5 9 9 28 40 -12 24
15 Reims 23 5 7 11 26 35 -9 22
16 St Etienne 23 5 4 14 23 53 -30 19
17 Le Havre 23 5 2 16 19 47 -28 17
18 Montpellier 23 4 3 16 21 54 -33 15

Recent Trends

Montpellier ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 1)

Rennes ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Reims (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs St Etienne (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Montpellier

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.79
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.31
# Clean Sheets: 0

Rennes

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.58
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.56
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Montpellier and Rennes is heavily tilted in favor of the visiting team. Rennes is predicted to secure a victory with a significant 76.0% probability, while Montpellier's chances of winning are slim at just 12.0%. The likelihood of the match ending in a draw is 11.0%. In terms of goals, the game is likely to have more than 2.5 goals, with a 62.0% probability supporting this outcome. Montpellier currently sits at the bottom of the league table in 18th place, while Rennes is positioned at 13th.

Match Analysis

Montpellier is undergoing a challenging period, having lost all of their last three games. Their recent performances have been particularly concerning, with defeats against Nice, Lyon, and Strasbourg, and a paltry goal tally of just one scored while conceding eight. This streak reflects their overall season struggles, with an average of 2.4 goals conceded per game in the last five matches. Rennes, on the other hand, has shown more resilience. Despite a loss to Lille, they secured victories against Reims and St Etienne, keeping clean sheets in both matches. Their defensive solidity is underscored by three clean sheets in their last five games. Rennes' offensive capabilities mirror those of Montpellier, with both teams averaging 1.2 goals per match over their last five games. However, Rennes' slightly better defensive record, with an average of 1.6 goals conceded, might give them the edge.

Final Prediction

Rennes appears to have the upper hand in this encounter, primarily due to their superior defensive performances and recent positive results. Their ability to keep clean sheets could prove decisive against a struggling Montpellier side that has been leaking goals. A key factor to watch will be Rennes' defensive organization, which might stifle Montpellier's attempts and contribute to an away victory.