Ligue 1 2024-2025: Montpellier vs Le Havre Prediction

Montpellier

Home Team
39%
VS

Le Havre

Away Team
35%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 27 22 5 0 79 26 53 71
2 Monaco 27 15 5 7 53 33 20 50
3 Marseille 27 15 4 8 54 36 18 49
4 Nice 27 13 8 6 51 33 18 47
5 Lille 27 13 8 6 41 28 13 47
6 Strasbourg 27 13 7 7 45 35 10 46
7 Lyon 27 13 6 8 52 37 15 45
8 Brest 27 12 4 11 42 42 0 40
9 Lens 27 11 6 10 31 30 1 39
10 Auxerre 27 9 8 10 38 39 -1 35
11 Toulouse 27 9 7 11 35 33 2 34
12 Rennes 27 10 2 15 38 37 1 32
13 Nantes 27 6 9 12 31 46 -15 27
14 Angers 27 7 6 14 26 45 -19 27
15 Reims 27 6 8 13 29 41 -12 26
16 Le Havre 27 7 3 17 29 57 -28 24
17 St Etienne 26 5 5 16 26 63 -37 20
18 Montpellier 26 4 3 19 21 60 -39 15

Recent Trends

Montpellier ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 4)

Le Havre ✅ ❌ ⚪ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lyon (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs St Etienne (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lens (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Montpellier

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.62
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.50
# Clean Sheets: 0

Le Havre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.68
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.13
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Montpellier and Le Havre sees the home team, Montpellier, with a slight edge in the prediction, boasting a 39.0% probability of victory. Despite their position at the bottom of the Ligue 1 standings, the probability suggests a potential win for Montpellier. The chance of seeing over 2.5 goals in the match is relatively high at 56.0%, indicating an expectation of a lively contest. Montpellier currently sits at 18th place, while Le Havre is slightly higher at 16th, both teams fighting to avoid relegation.

Match Analysis

Montpellier's recent performances have been challenging, enduring a three-game losing streak without scoring a single goal and conceding six in the process. Their lack of attacking prowess is highlighted by their average of only 0.8 goals scored in the last five matches. Defensively, they are struggling as well, conceding an average of 2.8 goals per game. However, their expected goals metrics suggest they have potential for improvement, with 1.622 expected goals scored and 2.504 expected goals conceded per game in recent outings. Le Havre, on the other hand, displays a more balanced recent form. They secured a vital home victory against Nantes and managed a draw against St Etienne, although they fell to Lyon in an away fixture. With an average of 2 goals scored and conceded per game, Le Havre's matches tend to be open affairs. Their expected goals statistics, with 1.684 expected goals scored and 2.13 expected goals conceded, further indicate their capability to both score and concede, making them an unpredictable opponent.

Final Prediction

Montpellier's edge in the prediction could be attributed to the home advantage, despite their recent poor form. The key factor to watch will be whether Montpellier can capitalize on their slightly superior expected goals metric to break their goal drought. With both teams showing defensive vulnerabilities, fans can anticipate an engaging match with chances on both ends.