Ligue 1 2024-2025: Monaco vs Marseille Prediction

Monaco

Home Team
72%
VS

Marseille

Away Team
13%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 69%
Under 2.5: 31%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 28 23 5 0 80 26 54 74
2 Marseille 28 16 4 8 57 38 19 52
3 Monaco 28 15 5 8 54 35 19 50
4 Strasbourg 28 14 7 7 46 35 11 49
5 Lyon 28 14 6 8 54 38 16 48
6 Nice 28 13 8 7 52 35 17 47
7 Lille 28 13 8 7 42 30 12 47
8 Brest 28 13 4 11 44 43 1 43
9 Lens 28 12 6 10 32 30 2 42
10 Auxerre 28 10 8 10 39 39 0 38
11 Toulouse 28 9 7 12 37 36 1 34
12 Rennes 28 10 2 16 38 38 0 32
13 Nantes 28 7 9 12 33 47 -14 30
14 Angers 28 7 6 15 26 46 -20 27
15 Le Havre 28 8 3 17 31 57 -26 27
16 Reims 28 6 8 14 29 42 -13 26
17 St Etienne 28 6 5 17 28 64 -36 23
18 Montpellier 28 4 3 21 21 64 -43 15

Recent Trends

Monaco ❌ ✅ ✅ ⚪ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Brest (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Reims (Goals: 3 - 0)

Marseille ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Toulouse (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Reims (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Monaco

Average Expected Goals (xG): 3.45
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.24
# Clean Sheets: 2

Marseille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.40
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.62
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

As Monaco prepares to face Marseille, the odds heavily favor a home victory for the Monegasque side, with a 72.0% probability of winning. The match is expected to be a high-scoring affair with a 69.0% likelihood of more than 2.5 goals. In the Ligue 1 standings, Marseille holds the second position with 52 points, while Monaco is closely trailing in third place with 50 points, making this a crucial encounter in the race for Champions League qualification.

Match Analysis

Monaco enters this clash with a mixed bag of recent results, having secured wins against Nice and Angers but suffering a setback against Brest. They have shown a strong offensive capability, averaging 3.8 goals per game in their last five outings, while also maintaining a solid defense with two clean sheets. Their expected goals metrics further underline their attacking prowess, indicating consistent chances being created and converted. On the other hand, Marseille's recent form has been less convincing, with only one win in their last three matches, including defeats at the hands of Reims and Paris SG. They have struggled to score, averaging just 0.8 goals per game over the past five fixtures, while their defense has been leaky, conceding an average of 2.2 goals. Despite this, their expected goals suggest potential for improvement, indicating opportunities that have not yet been capitalized on.

Final Prediction

Monaco appears to have the upper hand in this encounter, primarily due to their superior attacking form and better defensive record. A key factor to watch will be Monaco's ability to exploit Marseille's defensive vulnerabilities, which could lead to a decisive outcome in their favor. With both teams vying for a spot in next season's Champions League, the stakes are high, and Monaco's recent performances give them a slight edge.