Ligue 1 2024-2025: Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction

Marseille

Home Team
67%
VS

Toulouse

Away Team
15%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 65%
Under 2.5: 35%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 27 22 5 0 79 26 53 71
2 Monaco 27 15 5 7 53 33 20 50
3 Marseille 27 15 4 8 54 36 18 49
4 Nice 27 13 8 6 51 33 18 47
5 Lille 27 13 8 6 41 28 13 47
6 Strasbourg 27 13 7 7 45 35 10 46
7 Lyon 27 13 6 8 52 37 15 45
8 Brest 27 12 4 11 42 42 0 40
9 Lens 27 11 6 10 31 30 1 39
10 Auxerre 27 9 8 10 38 39 -1 35
11 Toulouse 27 9 7 11 35 33 2 34
12 Rennes 27 10 2 15 38 37 1 32
13 Nantes 27 6 9 12 31 46 -15 27
14 Angers 27 7 6 14 26 45 -19 27
15 Reims 27 6 8 13 29 41 -12 26
16 Le Havre 27 7 3 17 29 57 -28 24
17 St Etienne 26 5 5 16 26 63 -37 20
18 Montpellier 26 4 3 19 21 60 -39 15

Recent Trends

Marseille ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Reims (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 3)

Toulouse ❌ ❌ ⚪ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Le Havre (Goals: 4 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Marseille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 3.33
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.16
# Clean Sheets: 1

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.20
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.95
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Marseille and Toulouse is predicted to favor the home team, Marseille, with a 67.0% probability of winning. This is a critical fixture for Marseille, who currently hold third place in Ligue 1, seeking to maintain their position in the Champions League spots. The game is also likely to feature over 2.5 goals, with a 65.0% probability, indicating a potentially high-scoring encounter.

Match Analysis

Marseille is looking to rebound after a challenging spell, having lost their last three matches against Reims, Paris SG, and Lens. Despite these setbacks, they have exhibited a strong offensive presence, averaging 2.2 goals per game in their last five. However, their defense has been leaky, conceding an average of 1.0 goal per match. Marseille's expected goals metrics suggest they are creating ample scoring opportunities, averaging 3.332 expected goals per game, which could significantly impact the outcome if they capitalize on these chances. Toulouse, positioned 11th in the league, is also experiencing a rough patch, with two losses and a draw in their last three outings. They managed a commendable 1-1 draw against Monaco but suffered defeats against Brest and Strasbourg. Like Marseille, Toulouse scores an average of 2.2 goals per game, complemented by a solid defensive average, conceding only 1.0 goal per match. Their expected goals data indicates a well-rounded offensive approach, with 2.196 expected goals, suggesting they can pose a threat to Marseille's goal.

Final Prediction

Marseille is favored in this matchup due to their higher league position and home advantage. Their robust attacking metrics and the potential for high-scoring opportunities give them an edge. A key factor to watch will be how effectively Marseille can convert their chances into goals, as this could be decisive in securing a victory.