Ligue 1 2024-2025: Marseille vs Nantes Prediction

Marseille

Home Team
94%
VS

Nantes

Away Team
2%
Draw: 4%
Over 2.5: 67%
Under 2.5: 33%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 23 18 5 0 62 22 40 59
2 Marseille 23 14 4 5 50 29 21 46
3 Nice 23 12 7 4 46 27 19 43
4 Lille 23 11 8 4 38 23 15 41
5 Monaco 23 12 4 7 45 31 14 40
6 Lyon 23 10 6 7 42 30 12 36
7 Strasbourg 23 9 7 7 37 32 5 34
8 Lens 23 9 6 8 26 25 1 33
9 Brest 23 10 3 10 35 38 -3 33
10 Toulouse 23 8 6 9 27 26 1 30
11 Auxerre 23 7 7 9 34 37 -3 28
12 Angers 23 7 6 10 26 34 -8 27
13 Rennes 23 8 2 13 30 32 -2 26
14 Nantes 23 5 9 9 28 40 -12 24
15 Reims 23 5 7 11 26 35 -9 22
16 St Etienne 23 5 4 14 23 53 -30 19
17 Le Havre 23 5 2 16 19 47 -28 17
18 Montpellier 23 4 3 16 21 54 -33 15

Recent Trends

Marseille ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs St Etienne (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)

Nantes ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lens (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 7)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Reims (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Marseille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 3.45
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.17
# Clean Sheets: 1

Nantes

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.32
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.06
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Marseille is poised to secure a home victory against Nantes with a strong probability of 94.0%. The match is expected to see over 2.5 goals, with a 67.0% likelihood of that outcome. In the current Ligue 1 standings, Marseille sits comfortably in 2nd place, showcasing their strong season, while Nantes is struggling at 14th position.

Match Analysis

Marseille's recent performances have been a mixed bag, with a notable 5-1 victory against St Etienne at home highlighting their attacking prowess. They followed that with a solid 2-0 away win against Angers but stumbled in a 3-0 defeat to Auxerre. Their ability to score is further reinforced by an average of 3.0 goals in their last five matches, coupled with an expected goals metric of 3.448. Defensively, they've been relatively solid, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game. Conversely, Nantes has had a challenging period. After a morale-boosting 3-1 win over Lens, they suffered a heavy 7-1 loss to Monaco and a 2-0 defeat to Brest. They average 1.2 goals scored per game in their last five matches, but their defensive frailties are evident, conceding an average of 2.8 goals. The absence of clean sheets in their last five games further underscores their defensive vulnerabilities.

Final Prediction

Marseille's potent attack and stronger defensive form give them a clear advantage heading into this clash. Key to their potential success will be their ability to capitalize on Nantes' defensive weaknesses. Fans should keep an eye on Marseille's attacking plays, which could dictate the pace and outcome of the match.