Ligue 1 2024-2025: Marseille vs Lens Prediction

Marseille

Home Team
79%
VS

Lens

Away Team
10%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 68%
Under 2.5: 32%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 24 19 5 0 66 23 43 62
2 Marseille 24 15 4 5 52 29 23 49
3 Nice 24 13 7 4 49 28 21 46
4 Monaco 24 13 4 7 48 31 17 43
5 Lille 24 11 8 5 39 27 12 41
6 Lyon 24 11 6 7 44 31 13 39
7 Strasbourg 24 10 7 7 38 32 6 37
8 Toulouse 24 9 6 9 31 26 5 33
9 Lens 24 9 6 9 29 29 0 33
10 Brest 24 10 3 11 36 40 -4 33
11 Rennes 24 9 2 13 34 32 2 29
12 Auxerre 24 7 7 10 34 38 -4 28
13 Angers 24 7 6 11 26 38 -12 27
14 Nantes 24 5 9 10 28 42 -14 24
15 Reims 24 5 7 12 26 38 -12 22
16 Le Havre 24 6 2 16 23 50 -27 20
17 St Etienne 24 5 4 15 24 56 -32 19
18 Montpellier 24 4 3 17 21 58 -37 15

Recent Trends

Marseille ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs St Etienne (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 2)

Lens ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Le Havre (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Montpellier (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Marseille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 3.73
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.09
# Clean Sheets: 2

Lens

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.23
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.22
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Marseille and Lens is anticipated to favor the home side, Marseille, with a robust 79% probability of victory. The game is set to be a high-scoring affair, with a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored. Currently, Marseille sits comfortably in 2nd place in Ligue 1, while Lens finds itself in 9th position, striving to move up the mid-table ranks.

Match Analysis

Marseille enters this fixture with a strong run of form in their recent matches. They secured a dominant 5-1 victory against St Etienne and a solid 2-0 win over Nantes, although they did suffer a setback with a 0-3 loss away to Auxerre. Their offensive prowess is evident, averaging 3.2 goals per game in their last five outings, while maintaining a relatively tight defense with only 1.0 goals conceded per match. On the other hand, Lens is struggling to find their rhythm, having endured three consecutive losses. Despite a valiant effort, they fell 3-4 to Le Havre, followed by a 1-3 defeat to Nantes and a 0-2 loss to Strasbourg. Lens has managed an average of 1.4 goals per game recently, but their defense has been porous, conceding 1.6 goals on average per match. The advanced metrics further highlight Marseille's attacking capabilities with 3.728 expected goals compared to Lens' 2.228, suggesting a challenging match for the visitors.

Final Prediction

Marseille's impressive form and offensive firepower provide them with a significant advantage heading into this match. Their ability to score freely, coupled with a relatively stable defense, makes them the favorites against a Lens side struggling at both ends of the pitch. A key factor to watch will be Marseille's attacking dynamism, which could prove decisive in determining the match's outcome.