Ligue 1 2024-2025: Lille vs Montpellier Prediction

Lille

Home Team
94%
VS

Montpellier

Away Team
2%
Draw: 3%
Over 2.5: 66%
Under 2.5: 34%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 24 19 5 0 66 23 43 62
2 Marseille 24 15 4 5 52 29 23 49
3 Nice 24 13 7 4 49 28 21 46
4 Monaco 24 13 4 7 48 31 17 43
5 Lille 24 11 8 5 39 27 12 41
6 Lyon 24 11 6 7 44 31 13 39
7 Strasbourg 24 10 7 7 38 32 6 37
8 Toulouse 24 9 6 9 31 26 5 33
9 Lens 24 9 6 9 29 29 0 33
10 Brest 24 10 3 11 36 40 -4 33
11 Rennes 24 9 2 13 34 32 2 29
12 Auxerre 24 7 7 10 34 38 -4 28
13 Angers 24 7 6 11 26 38 -12 27
14 Nantes 24 5 9 10 28 42 -14 24
15 Reims 24 5 7 12 26 38 -12 22
16 Le Havre 24 6 2 16 23 50 -27 20
17 St Etienne 24 5 4 15 24 56 -32 19
18 Montpellier 24 4 3 17 21 58 -37 15

Recent Trends

Lille ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs St Etienne (Goals: 4 - 1)

Montpellier ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.60
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.10
# Clean Sheets: 1

Montpellier

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.38
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.77
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Lille and Montpellier is predicted to heavily favor Lille, with a 94.0% probability of a home victory. The game is also anticipated to be high-scoring, with a 66.0% chance of exceeding 2.5 goals. Lille currently stands in 5th place in Ligue 1, while Montpellier is languishing at the bottom in 18th position.

Match Analysis

Lille has shown a commendable performance in their recent fixtures, securing two wins against Monaco and Rennes and only faltering against league leaders Paris SG. Their attack has been relatively potent, scoring an average of 2.0 goals in their last five matches, although their defense has been slightly porous, conceding 1.2 goals on average. Key metrics suggest Lille is creating plenty of chances, with an average expected goals (xG) of 1.598, although they have been slightly vulnerable at the back with an expected goals against (xGA) of 2.1. In stark contrast, Montpellier's recent form has been dismal, suffering three consecutive defeats to Rennes, Nice, and Lyon, conceding a worrying total of 10 goals while scoring just once. Their offensive struggles are evident, with an average of only 0.4 goals scored in their last five outings. Despite a relatively decent xG of 1.384, their inability to convert chances has been a significant issue. Defensively, they continue to leak goals, as highlighted by their xGA of 1.766, indicating vulnerabilities that Lille will aim to exploit.

Final Prediction

Lille's superior form and attacking prowess give them a clear edge over Montpellier, who are currently battling at the bottom of the table. Lille's ability to score goals and Montpellier's defensive frailties suggest that the home team should come out on top. A key factor to watch will be Lille's ability to capitalize on their scoring opportunities, potentially leading to a high-scoring affair.