Ligue 1 2024-2025: Lens vs Rennes Prediction
Lens
Home Team
59%
VS
Rennes
Away Team
20%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5:
47%
Under 2.5:
53%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 25 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 70 | 24 | 46 | 65 |
| 2 | Marseille | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 52 | 30 | 22 | 49 |
| 3 | Nice | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 49 | 30 | 19 | 46 |
| 4 | Monaco | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 49 | 32 | 17 | 44 |
| 5 | Lille | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 40 | 27 | 13 | 44 |
| 6 | Lyon | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 31 | 15 | 42 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 39 | 32 | 7 | 40 |
| 8 | Lens | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 36 |
| 9 | Brest | 25 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 36 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 34 |
| 11 | Auxerre | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 31 |
| 12 | Rennes | 25 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 29 |
| 13 | Angers | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 27 |
| 14 | Nantes | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 28 | 43 | -15 | 24 |
| 15 | Reims | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 22 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 24 | 51 | -27 | 21 |
| 17 | St Etienne | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 57 | -32 | 20 |
| 18 | Montpellier | 25 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 21 | 59 | -38 | 15 |
Recent Trends
Lens
- Last Match: vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Le Havre (Goals: 3 - 4)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)
Rennes
- Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 4)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Montpellier (Goals: 4 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Reims (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs St Etienne (Goals: 2 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Lens
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.40
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.51
# Clean Sheets:
1
Rennes
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.04
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.75
# Clean Sheets:
3
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming match between Lens and Rennes is predicted to favor the home team, Lens, with a 59.0% probability of winning. The game is also expected to feature fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 47.0% chance supporting this outcome. In the current Ligue 1 standings, Lens holds the 8th position, while Rennes is in 12th place, indicating a slight edge for Lens in terms of league performance.
Match Analysis
Lens has experienced a mixed bag of results in their last three fixtures, securing a crucial away win against Marseille but suffering defeats to Le Havre and Nantes. Despite their inconsistent form, their win against Marseille highlights their potential to upset stronger teams. Lens has averaged 1.0 goal per game in their last five matches while conceding 1.8, indicating some defensive vulnerabilities. The advanced metrics show Lens creating decent chances with an average of 1.398 expected goals, though their defensive performance, with 1.510 expected goals conceded, is an area of concern.
Conversely, Rennes comes into this match with two wins from their last three games, including a convincing 4-0 victory against Montpellier. However, they struggled against league leaders Paris SG, conceding four goals at home. Rennes has been relatively more prolific, averaging 2.0 goals per game over their last five matches, with a solid defensive record of three clean sheets. Their advanced metrics reflect their attacking prowess, with 2.042 expected goals per game, although defensively, they concede an average of 1.752 expected goals.
Final Prediction
Lens's home advantage and their stronger position in the league standings give them an edge over Rennes in this matchup. However, Rennes's ability to score and maintain clean sheets poses a significant threat. A key factor to watch during the game will be Lens's ability to exploit Rennes's defensive lapses while containing their potent attack, which could be decisive in securing a victory.