Ligue 1 2024-2025: Lens vs Reims Prediction

Lens

Home Team
90%
VS

Reims

Away Team
4%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 28 23 5 0 80 26 54 74
2 Marseille 28 16 4 8 57 38 19 52
3 Monaco 28 15 5 8 54 35 19 50
4 Strasbourg 28 14 7 7 46 35 11 49
5 Lyon 28 14 6 8 54 38 16 48
6 Nice 28 13 8 7 52 35 17 47
7 Lille 28 13 8 7 42 30 12 47
8 Brest 28 13 4 11 44 43 1 43
9 Lens 28 12 6 10 32 30 2 42
10 Auxerre 28 10 8 10 39 39 0 38
11 Toulouse 28 9 7 12 37 36 1 34
12 Rennes 28 10 2 16 38 38 0 32
13 Nantes 28 7 9 12 33 47 -14 30
14 Angers 28 7 6 15 26 46 -20 27
15 Le Havre 28 8 3 17 31 57 -26 27
16 Reims 28 6 8 14 29 42 -13 26
17 St Etienne 28 6 5 17 28 64 -36 23
18 Montpellier 28 4 3 21 21 64 -43 15

Recent Trends

Lens ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs St Etienne (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Le Havre (Goals: 3 - 4)

Reims ❌ ✅ ⚪ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Marseille (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lens

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.49
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.23
# Clean Sheets: 3

Reims

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.56
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.49
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Lens and Reims sees Lens as the clear favorite with a commanding 90% probability of securing a home victory. The likelihood of an away win for Reims stands at a mere 4%, while the chance of a draw is 6%. With Lens currently placed 9th in the Ligue 1 standings and Reims struggling at 16th, the predicted result leans heavily in favor of the home team. Additionally, there's a 50% chance of the game having over 2.5 goals.

Match Analysis

Lens has demonstrated a solid performance in recent matches, winning two of their last three games, both at home, against St Etienne and Rennes by a scoreline of 1-0. The only blip in their form was a narrow 0-1 away loss to Lille. Their defensive resilience is noteworthy, having kept clean sheets in these victories. Lens's ability to grind out results is reflected in their average of 1.2 goals scored and conceded over the last five games, supported by their expected goals (xG) metrics of 1.49 scored and 1.23 conceded. On the other hand, Reims has had a mixed bag of results. They achieved an impressive home victory against Marseille, scoring three goals to one, but faltered against Strasbourg with a 0-1 home defeat and managed a goalless draw away at Brest. Reims's offensive struggles are evident, averaging just 0.2 goals scored in the last five games, while defensively, they have been leaky, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game. Their xG metrics further highlight this disparity, with 0.56 expected goals scored and 2.49 expected goals conceded.

Final Prediction

Lens's strong home form, combined with their defensive solidity, gives them a significant edge in this encounter against a Reims side struggling for consistency and goals. A key factor to keep an eye on will be whether Lens can capitalize on Reims's defensive vulnerabilities to score multiple goals, potentially surpassing the 2.5 goals mark in the match.