Ligue 1 2024-2025: Lens vs Le Havre Prediction

Lens

Home Team
90%
VS

Le Havre

Away Team
4%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 23 18 5 0 62 22 40 59
2 Marseille 23 14 4 5 50 29 21 46
3 Nice 23 12 7 4 46 27 19 43
4 Lille 23 11 8 4 38 23 15 41
5 Monaco 23 12 4 7 45 31 14 40
6 Lyon 23 10 6 7 42 30 12 36
7 Strasbourg 23 9 7 7 37 32 5 34
8 Lens 23 9 6 8 26 25 1 33
9 Brest 23 10 3 10 35 38 -3 33
10 Toulouse 23 8 6 9 27 26 1 30
11 Auxerre 23 7 7 9 34 37 -3 28
12 Angers 23 7 6 10 26 34 -8 27
13 Rennes 23 8 2 13 30 32 -2 26
14 Nantes 23 5 9 9 28 40 -12 24
15 Reims 23 5 7 11 26 35 -9 22
16 St Etienne 23 5 4 14 23 53 -30 19
17 Le Havre 23 5 2 16 19 47 -28 17
18 Montpellier 23 4 3 16 21 54 -33 15

Recent Trends

Lens ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Montpellier (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 0)

Le Havre ❌ ❌ ✅ ⚪ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Lille (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lens

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.21
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.47
# Clean Sheets: 2

Le Havre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.49
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.10
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

For the upcoming clash between Lens and Le Havre, the prediction strongly favors a home victory for Lens with a 90.0% probability. Additionally, there is a 56.0% probability for the match to see over 2.5 goals. In terms of current league standings, Lens sits in 8th place, while Le Havre is struggling in 17th, teetering on the brink of relegation.

Match Analysis

Lens has faced a challenging period recently, suffering losses in their last three matches against Nantes, Strasbourg, and Nice. Their offensive struggles are apparent, with only one goal scored across these games. However, their defense has managed to keep two clean sheets in their past five matches, indicating some defensive resilience. Le Havre has also had a tough run, losing two out of their last three encounters. Despite a victorious performance against Lille, they have shown vulnerabilities, particularly in defense, conceding an average of two goals per game over the last five matches. Their inability to keep a clean sheet recently highlights defensive issues that Lens could exploit. Advanced metrics reveal that while Lens has a lower goal-scoring average (0.8) compared to Le Havre's (1.2) in recent matches, their expected goals scored suggest a potential to improve offensively. Conversely, Le Havre's higher expected goals conceded (2.096) compared to Lens (1.468) could be a decisive factor in tipping the scales in Lens’ favor.

Final Prediction

Lens is predicted to have the upper hand due to their better defensive performance and the overall struggles of Le Havre. The key factor to watch will be whether Lens can capitalize on Le Havre's defensive frailties to secure a much-needed victory and solidify their mid-table status.