Ligue 1 2024-2025: Le Havre vs St Etienne Prediction

Le Havre

Home Team
69%
VS

St Etienne

Away Team
14%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 24 19 5 0 66 23 43 62
2 Marseille 24 15 4 5 52 29 23 49
3 Nice 24 13 7 4 49 28 21 46
4 Monaco 24 13 4 7 48 31 17 43
5 Lille 24 11 8 5 39 27 12 41
6 Lyon 24 11 6 7 44 31 13 39
7 Strasbourg 24 10 7 7 38 32 6 37
8 Toulouse 24 9 6 9 31 26 5 33
9 Lens 24 9 6 9 29 29 0 33
10 Brest 24 10 3 11 36 40 -4 33
11 Rennes 24 9 2 13 34 32 2 29
12 Auxerre 24 7 7 10 34 38 -4 28
13 Angers 24 7 6 11 26 38 -12 27
14 Nantes 24 5 9 10 28 42 -14 24
15 Reims 24 5 7 12 26 38 -12 22
16 Le Havre 24 6 2 16 23 50 -27 20
17 St Etienne 24 5 4 15 24 56 -32 19
18 Montpellier 24 4 3 17 21 58 -37 15

Recent Trends

Le Havre ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lens (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lille (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 1)

St Etienne ❌ ⚪ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Angers (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Le Havre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.14
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.14
# Clean Sheets: 0

St Etienne

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.02
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 3.21
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the upcoming clash between Le Havre and St Etienne, Le Havre is predicted to emerge victorious with a significant 69.0% probability. The match is expected to see over 2.5 goals, with a 51.0% chance of that occurring. Both teams are at the bottom end of the Ligue 1 table, with Le Havre positioned 16th and St Etienne just below them in 17th place.

Match Analysis

Le Havre's recent performances have been a mixed bag, with a notable away win against Lens by 4-3, but they have struggled at home, losing to Toulouse and Nice. Their recent form indicates defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded an average of 2.6 goals per game over the last five matches. Despite a low average goal output of 0.6, Le Havre’s expected goals metric suggests they create more chances than they convert, with an average of 1.144 expected goals in their recent outings. St Etienne, on the other hand, has also faced a tough run, with a heavy 5-1 defeat away to Marseille and a home loss to Nice. A 3-3 draw against Angers shows their ability to score but also highlights defensive frailties, as they concede an average of 2.8 goals per game. The team's expected goals conceded at 3.214 is a glaring concern, indicating they often allow their opponents clear scoring opportunities.

Final Prediction

Le Havre's edge in this matchup lies in their ability to create more significant scoring opportunities, as evidenced by their expected goals metrics. St Etienne's defensive woes could be a critical factor, potentially leading to a high-scoring affair. Keep an eye on Le Havre's ability to exploit St Etienne's defensive lapses, which might be the key to securing the predicted victory.