Ligue 1 2024-2025: Auxerre vs Marseille Prediction

Auxerre

Home Team
3%
VS

Marseille

Away Team
93%
Draw: 4%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 22 17 5 0 59 20 39 56
2 Marseille 22 14 4 4 50 26 24 46
3 Nice 22 11 7 4 44 27 17 40
4 Monaco 22 12 4 6 44 29 15 40
5 Lille 22 10 8 4 36 22 14 38
6 Lyon 22 10 6 6 40 27 13 36
7 Strasbourg 22 9 6 7 37 32 5 33
8 Lens 22 9 6 7 25 22 3 33
9 Brest 22 10 2 10 35 38 -3 32
10 Toulouse 22 7 6 9 23 25 -2 27
11 Angers 22 7 5 10 23 31 -8 26
12 Auxerre 22 6 7 9 31 37 -6 25
13 Rennes 22 7 2 13 29 32 -3 23
14 Reims 22 5 7 10 26 34 -8 22
15 Nantes 22 4 9 9 25 39 -14 21
16 St Etienne 22 5 3 14 20 50 -30 18
17 Le Havre 22 5 2 15 18 43 -25 17
18 Montpellier 22 4 3 15 21 52 -31 15

Recent Trends

Auxerre ⚪ ⚪ ❌ ⚪ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs St Etienne (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 2)

Marseille ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs St Etienne (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Auxerre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.55
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.73
# Clean Sheets: 0

Marseille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.17
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.32
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash between Auxerre and Marseille, the away team, Marseille, is heavily favored to win with a staggering 93% probability. Given their current second-place standing, Marseille is poised to secure a victory against the 12th-placed Auxerre. Additionally, there is a 58% chance that the match will conclude with over 2.5 goals, suggesting an action-packed encounter.

Match Analysis

Auxerre has managed to secure only two draws in their last three matches while suffering a loss against Monaco, where they conceded four goals. This recent form highlights their defensive vulnerabilities, as they have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five games. On the offensive front, Auxerre has averaged 1.0 goal per game, yet their expected goals (xG) metric stands at a mere 0.55, indicating they may struggle to convert chances against a strong Marseille side. Conversely, Marseille has been in sublime form, winning all their recent three games with impressive results. They scored five goals against St Etienne and maintained a clean sheet against Angers. Marseille's attacking prowess is evident in their average of 1.8 goals per game, supported by an expected goals (xG) of 2.17. Defensively, they have been solid, conceding only 0.8 goals on average in their last five outings, showcasing their ability to limit the opposition's chances.

Final Prediction

Marseille's recent dominance and Auxerre's defensive frailties give the visitors a clear edge in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be Marseille's ability to capitalize on their offensive opportunities, potentially exploiting Auxerre's defensive lapses. With Marseille's current form and the statistical backing, they are likely to continue their winning streak in this encounter.