Ligue 1 2024-2025: Auxerre vs Lyon Prediction

Auxerre

Home Team
28%
VS

Lyon

Away Team
50%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 28 23 5 0 80 26 54 74
2 Marseille 28 16 4 8 57 38 19 52
3 Monaco 28 15 5 8 54 35 19 50
4 Strasbourg 28 14 7 7 46 35 11 49
5 Lyon 28 14 6 8 54 38 16 48
6 Nice 28 13 8 7 52 35 17 47
7 Lille 28 13 8 7 42 30 12 47
8 Brest 28 13 4 11 44 43 1 43
9 Lens 28 12 6 10 32 30 2 42
10 Auxerre 28 10 8 10 39 39 0 38
11 Toulouse 28 9 7 12 37 36 1 34
12 Rennes 28 10 2 16 38 38 0 32
13 Nantes 28 7 9 12 33 47 -14 30
14 Angers 28 7 6 15 26 46 -20 27
15 Le Havre 28 8 3 17 31 57 -26 27
16 Reims 28 6 8 14 29 42 -13 26
17 St Etienne 28 6 5 17 28 64 -36 23
18 Montpellier 28 4 3 21 21 64 -43 15

Recent Trends

Auxerre ✅ ✅ ⚪ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Montpellier (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Reims (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 1)

Lyon ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lille (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Le Havre (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Auxerre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.50
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.11
# Clean Sheets: 3

Lyon

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.74
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.98
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Auxerre and Lyon is tipped in favor of the visitors, with a 50.0% probability of a Lyon victory. The chances of Auxerre securing a win stand at 28.0%, while a draw is less likely at 21.0%. In terms of goal output, there's a 57.0% likelihood that the match will see over 2.5 goals. Currently, Lyon occupies the 5th spot in Ligue 1, whereas Auxerre sits in 10th place.

Match Analysis

Auxerre comes into this match with a solid run of form, remaining unbeaten in their last three games. They have demonstrated defensive resilience, keeping clean sheets in two consecutive matches against Rennes and Montpellier, both ending in 1-0 victories. A recent 1-1 draw away at Nice further highlights their ability to compete against higher-ranked teams. Auxerre's recent form is backed by an average of 1.4 goals scored per game and a commendable defensive record of only 0.8 goals conceded over their last five matches. On the other hand, Lyon has been displaying a robust attacking prowess, averaging 2.2 goals per game in their last five outings. They secured a vital 2-1 win over Lille and dispatched Le Havre 4-2, though a 4-2 defeat at the hands of Strasbourg suggests vulnerabilities in their defense. Lyon's expected goals (xG) metrics indicate potential for creating scoring opportunities, with an average of 1.74 expected goals per game. However, they must address their defensive frailties, having conceded 1.8 goals per game on average.

Final Prediction

Lyon's edge over Auxerre lies in their superior attacking capabilities, with their recent performances showcasing an ability to score freely. The key factor to watch in this encounter will be Lyon's offensive execution against Auxerre's sturdy defense. If Lyon can capitalize on their attacking strengths while tightening their defensive lines, they are well-positioned to secure all three points.