La Liga 2024-2025: Villarreal vs Real Madrid Prediction

Villarreal

Home Team
28%
VS

Real Madrid

Away Team
52%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 26 18 3 5 71 25 46 57
2 Real Madrid 27 17 6 4 57 26 31 57
3 Ath Madrid 27 16 8 3 44 18 26 56
4 Ath Bilbao 27 13 10 4 45 24 21 49
5 Villarreal 26 12 8 6 48 36 12 44
6 Betis 27 11 8 8 35 33 2 41
7 Mallorca 27 10 7 10 26 33 -7 37
8 Vallecano 27 9 9 9 29 29 0 36
9 Celta 27 10 6 11 40 41 -1 36
10 Sevilla 27 9 9 9 32 36 -4 36
11 Sociedad 27 10 4 13 23 28 -5 34
12 Getafe 27 8 9 10 23 22 1 33
13 Girona 27 9 6 12 35 40 -5 33
14 Osasuna 26 7 12 7 32 37 -5 33
15 Espanol 26 7 7 12 25 37 -12 28
16 Valencia 27 6 9 12 30 45 -15 27
17 Leganes 27 6 9 12 24 40 -16 27
18 Alaves 27 6 8 13 30 40 -10 26
19 Las Palmas 27 6 6 15 30 45 -15 24
20 Valladolid 27 4 4 19 18 62 -44 16

Recent Trends

Villarreal ❌ ✅ ⚪ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alaves (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Las Palmas (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Valladolid (Goals: 5 - 1)

Real Madrid ✅ ❌ ✅ ⚪ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Vallecano (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Villarreal

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.28
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.08
# Clean Sheets: 1

Real Madrid

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.09
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.20
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Real Madrid is favored to secure a victory against Villarreal, with a 52.0% probability of winning the match. Villarreal has a 28.0% chance of claiming victory, while a draw stands at 19.0%. Given the current standings, Real Madrid sits in second place with 57 points, while Villarreal is in the fifth position with 44 points. The game is also predicted to have over 2.5 goals, with a 52.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Villarreal's recent form shows a mixed bag of results. They managed a win against Vallecano (1-0), but also suffered a defeat at Alaves (0-1) and were held to a draw by Valencia (1-1). The Yellow Submarine has been averaging 2.4 goals per game in their last five matches, highlighting their attacking potential, though they've only achieved one clean sheet in that period. Real Madrid, on the other hand, has also had varying outcomes in their recent fixtures, with a win over Girona (2-0), a loss to Betis (1-2), and a victory against Vallecano (2-1). The Los Blancos have been scoring an average of 1.4 goals per game in their last five matches, and similar to Villarreal, they have kept just one clean sheet. Their expected goals indicate they are creating chances, with an average of 2.092 expected goals per match.

Final Prediction

Real Madrid holds the edge due to their strong league position and a slightly better recent performance in terms of expected goals. The key factor to watch during the game is how both teams capitalize on their scoring opportunities, given the likelihood of a high-scoring match. With both teams showing attacking prowess but struggling to keep clean sheets, the defensive performances could be decisive in determining the outcome.