La Liga 2024-2025: Villarreal vs Ath Bilbao Prediction

Villarreal

Home Team
37%
VS

Ath Bilbao

Away Team
38%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 29 21 3 5 82 28 54 66
2 Real Madrid 29 19 6 4 62 29 33 63
3 Ath Madrid 29 16 9 4 47 23 24 57
4 Ath Bilbao 29 14 11 4 46 24 22 53
5 Villarreal 28 13 8 7 51 39 12 47
6 Betis 29 13 8 8 40 36 4 47
7 Vallecano 29 10 10 9 33 31 2 40
8 Celta 29 11 7 11 42 42 0 40
9 Mallorca 29 11 7 11 28 35 -7 40
10 Sociedad 29 11 5 13 27 31 -4 38
11 Sevilla 29 9 9 11 33 39 -6 36
12 Getafe 29 9 9 11 26 25 1 36
13 Girona 29 9 7 13 37 45 -8 34
14 Osasuna 29 7 13 9 33 42 -9 34
15 Valencia 29 7 10 12 32 46 -14 31
16 Espanol 28 7 8 13 27 40 -13 29
17 Alaves 29 6 9 14 32 44 -12 27
18 Leganes 29 6 9 14 28 46 -18 27
19 Las Palmas 29 6 8 15 33 48 -15 26
20 Valladolid 29 4 4 21 19 65 -46 16

Recent Trends

Villarreal ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Getafe (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alaves (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 1)

Ath Bilbao ⚪ ✅ ⚪ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Osasuna (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Valladolid (Goals: 7 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Villarreal

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.36
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.97
# Clean Sheets: 1

Ath Bilbao

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.67
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.08
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Athletic Bilbao is slightly favored to win against Villarreal, with a 38.0% chance compared to Villarreal's 37.0% probability of winning. A draw stands at 25.0%, making it the least likely outcome. The match is likely to see over 2.5 goals, given the 55.0% probability. Currently, Athletic Bilbao ranks 4th in La Liga standings, while Villarreal sits in 5th place, with only six points separating them.

Match Analysis

Villarreal's recent form has been inconsistent, with a win against Getafe followed by defeats to Real Madrid and Alaves. Their offensive prowess is notable, though, as they average 2.4 goals per game over their last five matches. Despite their scoring ability, defensive lapses have been evident, conceding an average of 1.0 goals per game in the same span. Villarreal's expected goals metrics (2.364 scored and 0.968 conceded) suggest they create numerous opportunities but sometimes fail to convert them efficiently. Athletic Bilbao has shown resilience, with only one loss in their last three matches, including a win over Sevilla and draws against Osasuna and Mallorca. They have kept two clean sheets in their recent five games, indicating a solid defensive setup. Bilbao's average of 1.2 goals scored per game suggests a more conservative attacking approach, but with an average expected goals of 1.668, they have the potential to capitalize on chances when they arise.

Final Prediction

Athletic Bilbao's slight edge in the prediction comes from their solid recent performances and defensive stability, which could prove crucial in a tight encounter. Villarreal's attack will be a vital factor, and whether they can break through Bilbao's defense will be key. Keep an eye on how Villarreal's offensive strategies match up against Athletic's disciplined backline, as this could be the determining factor in the match's outcome.