La Liga 2024-2025: Alaves vs Villarreal Prediction

Alaves

Home Team
30%
VS

Villarreal

Away Team
48%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 26 18 3 5 71 25 46 57
2 Ath Madrid 26 16 8 2 43 16 27 56
3 Real Madrid 26 16 6 4 55 25 30 54
4 Ath Bilbao 26 13 9 4 44 23 21 48
5 Villarreal 25 12 8 5 48 35 13 44
6 Betis 26 10 8 8 34 33 1 38
7 Vallecano 26 9 9 8 28 27 1 36
8 Mallorca 26 10 6 10 25 32 -7 36
9 Sociedad 26 10 4 12 23 27 -4 34
10 Celta 26 9 6 11 38 40 -2 33
11 Osasuna 26 7 12 7 32 37 -5 33
12 Sevilla 26 8 9 9 31 36 -5 33
13 Girona 26 9 5 12 34 39 -5 32
14 Getafe 26 7 9 10 21 21 0 30
15 Espanol 25 7 6 12 24 36 -12 27
16 Leganes 26 6 9 11 23 38 -15 27
17 Las Palmas 26 6 6 14 30 44 -14 24
18 Valencia 26 5 9 12 28 44 -16 24
19 Alaves 26 5 8 13 29 40 -11 23
20 Valladolid 26 4 4 18 17 60 -43 16

Recent Trends

Alaves ⚪ ❌ ⚪ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Leganes (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 1)

Villarreal ✅ ⚪ ✅ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Las Palmas (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Valladolid (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Alaves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.24
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.59
# Clean Sheets: 0

Villarreal

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.81
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.28
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming La Liga clash between Alaves and Villarreal is predicted to favor the visitors. Villarreal holds a 48.0% probability of winning, while Alaves, currently struggling in the relegation zone, has a 30.0% chance of securing a victory. The odds also suggest a 22.0% chance of a draw. Given the predicted result is under 2.5 goals, the match is expected to be a defensively focused encounter. Villarreal is currently positioned 5th in the standings, competing for a European spot, whereas Alaves is languishing in 19th place, battling to avoid relegation.

Match Analysis

Alaves' recent form has been less than inspiring, with no wins in their last three outings. They managed a 1-1 draw against Mallorca away, but suffered a narrow 0-1 defeat at home to Espanol, and drew 3-3 with Leganes in a match that showcased their defensive vulnerabilities. On the other hand, Villarreal comes into this fixture on a more positive note, having secured a crucial 1-0 away victory over Vallecano and a 2-1 win against Las Palmas. They also held Valencia to a 1-1 draw at home, demonstrating resilience in tight matches. Looking at the advanced metrics, Alaves has struggled offensively, scoring an average of only 0.4 goals per game in their last five matches, while conceding an average of 1.0. Their expected goals scored (1.244) suggest they have been somewhat unlucky in front of goal, but their defensive frailties are apparent. Villarreal, meanwhile, has been more potent in attack, averaging 1.8 goals per game, with a solid expected goals figure of 1.814. Their defense has also been reasonably tight, conceding an average of 1.0 goals per match, with one clean sheet in their last five outings.

Final Prediction

Villarreal appears to have the edge heading into this encounter, thanks to their superior attacking output and recent form. Alaves' inability to convert opportunities into goals, coupled with their defensive issues, may prove costly. A key factor to watch during the game will be Villarreal's attacking prowess against an Alaves defense that has shown vulnerability in recent matches.