La Liga 2024-2025: Alaves vs Real Madrid Prediction

Alaves

Home Team
10%
VS

Real Madrid

Away Team
82%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 30 21 4 5 83 29 54 67
2 Real Madrid 30 19 6 5 63 31 32 63
3 Ath Madrid 30 17 9 4 49 24 25 60
4 Ath Bilbao 30 14 12 4 46 24 22 54
5 Villarreal 29 13 9 7 51 39 12 48
6 Betis 30 13 9 8 41 37 4 48
7 Celta 30 12 7 11 44 43 1 43
8 Sociedad 30 12 5 13 30 32 -2 41
9 Vallecano 30 10 10 10 33 35 -2 40
10 Mallorca 30 11 7 12 29 37 -8 40
11 Getafe 30 10 9 11 30 25 5 39
12 Sevilla 30 9 9 12 34 41 -7 36
13 Osasuna 30 7 14 9 34 43 -9 35
14 Valencia 30 8 10 12 34 47 -13 34
15 Girona 30 9 7 14 37 46 -9 34
16 Espanol 29 8 8 13 31 40 -9 32
17 Alaves 30 7 9 14 33 44 -11 30
18 Leganes 30 6 10 14 29 47 -18 28
19 Las Palmas 30 6 8 16 34 51 -17 26
20 Valladolid 30 4 4 22 19 69 -50 16

Recent Trends

Alaves ✅ ❌ ⚪ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Las Palmas (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 1)

Real Madrid ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Leganes (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Villarreal (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Vallecano (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Alaves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.30
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.96
# Clean Sheets: 2

Real Madrid

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.77
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.33
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Real Madrid is poised to continue its title chase with an 82% probability of victory as they travel to face Alaves, who have a slim 10% chance of winning. The match is predicted to have fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 47% likelihood of such an outcome. Real Madrid currently sits in 2nd place in La Liga, while Alaves is battling relegation in 17th place.

Match Analysis

Alaves have had a mixed bag of results in their last three outings. They secured a narrow 1-0 win against Girona away from home but followed it up with a disappointing 2-0 home loss to Vallecano. A spirited performance saw them draw 2-2 with Las Palmas, highlighting some defensive vulnerabilities. Key metrics show Alaves scoring an average of 0.4 goals and conceding 1.0 goals over their last five matches. Despite this, their defensive efforts have been commendable with two clean sheets, indicating resilience that could be pivotal against a side like Real Madrid. Real Madrid's recent performances have been solid, winning two out of their last three matches, including a 2-1 victory away against Villarreal. However, they did slip at home with a 2-1 loss to Valencia. Their attacking prowess remains evident as they average 1.4 goals per game in their last five matches, though they have failed to keep a clean sheet during this period. With an expected goal tally of 1.774, Real Madrid will be looking to capitalize on any defensive lapses by Alaves.

Final Prediction

Real Madrid's superior standing and recent form give them the edge in this matchup. Their ability to consistently find the back of the net, coupled with Alaves' occasional defensive lapses, could prove decisive. A key factor to watch will be how Alaves' defense manages to contain the attacking threat posed by Real Madrid, particularly in the absence of recent clean sheets from the visitors.