La Liga 2024-2025: Alaves vs Ath Madrid Prediction

Alaves

Home Team
13%
VS

Ath Madrid

Away Team
75%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 33 24 4 5 89 32 57 76
2 Real Madrid 33 22 6 5 66 31 35 72
3 Ath Madrid 33 19 9 5 56 27 29 66
4 Betis 33 16 12 5 50 26 24 60
5 Betis 33 15 9 9 50 41 9 54
6 Villarreal 32 14 10 8 55 45 10 52
7 Celta 33 13 7 13 50 49 1 46
8 Osasuna 33 10 14 9 40 46 -6 44
9 Mallorca 33 12 8 13 31 38 -7 44
10 Sociedad 33 12 6 15 32 37 -5 42
11 Vallecano 33 10 11 12 35 42 -7 41
12 Getafe 33 10 9 14 31 30 1 39
13 Espanol 32 10 9 13 35 41 -6 39
14 Valencia 33 9 12 12 37 49 -12 39
15 Sevilla 33 9 10 14 35 44 -9 37
16 Girona 33 9 8 16 40 52 -12 35
17 Alaves 33 8 10 15 35 46 -11 34
18 Las Palmas 33 8 8 17 38 53 -15 32
19 Leganes 33 6 12 15 30 49 -19 30
20 Valladolid 33 4 4 25 24 81 -57 16

Recent Trends

Alaves ✅ ⚪ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 2)

Ath Madrid ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Las Palmas (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Valladolid (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Espanol (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Alaves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.16
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.11
# Clean Sheets: 2

Ath Madrid

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.27
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.07
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Alaves and Atletico Madrid is heavily tilted in favor of the visitors, with a 75.0% probability of an away win. Alaves only hold a 13.0% chance of clinching victory, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 12.0%. Atletico Madrid, currently sitting at 3rd in La Liga, are in a strong position to secure a Champions League spot, whereas Alaves are fighting against relegation in 17th place. Additionally, the predicted outcome suggests a match with under 2.5 goals, given a 45.0% probability for over 2.5 goals.

Match Analysis

In their recent outings, Alaves have shown resilience with a mixed bag of results; they managed a notable 1-0 victory against Sociedad at home and secured a 1-1 draw away at Sevilla. However, their narrow 1-0 defeat to Real Madrid highlights the challenges they face against top-tier teams. Despite averaging only 0.4 goals per game in their last five matches, their defense has been relatively solid, conceding 0.8 goals on average, with two clean sheets. Atletico Madrid, on the other hand, have showcased their attacking prowess with a 3-0 triumph over Vallecano and a high-scoring 4-2 win against Valladolid. Nonetheless, an unexpected 1-0 loss to Las Palmas indicates some vulnerability away from home. Atletico's average of 1.4 goals scored per game, coupled with 1.0 goals conceded, reflects a balanced performance. Their advanced metrics, such as expected goals scored (1.266) and conceded (1.066), suggest a well-rounded team capable of controlling both ends of the pitch.

Final Prediction

Atletico Madrid's formidable form and higher league standing give them a significant edge over Alaves. Their ability to score and maintain defensive solidity, even amidst occasional lapses, makes them the favorites in this encounter. A key factor to watch will be Atletico's attacking duo, aiming to exploit Alaves' defensive structure and secure a vital away victory.