Bundesliga 2024-2025: Union Berlin vs Holstein Kiel Prediction

Union Berlin

Home Team
89%
VS

Holstein Kiel

Away Team
4%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 23 18 4 1 69 19 50 58
2 Leverkusen 23 14 8 1 51 27 24 50
3 Ein Frankfurt 23 12 6 5 49 33 16 42
4 Freiburg 23 12 3 8 34 36 -2 39
5 Mainz 23 11 5 7 37 24 13 38
6 RB Leipzig 23 10 8 5 38 31 7 38
7 Stuttgart 23 10 6 7 41 34 7 36
8 Wolfsburg 23 9 7 7 46 37 9 34
9 M'gladbach 23 10 4 9 35 35 0 34
10 Dortmund 23 9 5 9 43 38 5 32
11 Augsburg 23 8 7 8 27 35 -8 31
12 Werder Bremen 23 8 6 9 35 47 -12 30
13 Union Berlin 23 6 6 11 21 35 -14 24
14 Hoffenheim 23 5 7 11 30 46 -16 22
15 St Pauli 23 6 3 14 18 27 -9 21
16 Heidenheim 23 4 3 16 27 47 -20 15
17 Bochum 23 3 6 14 22 47 -25 15
18 Holstein Kiel 23 3 4 16 34 59 -25 13

Recent Trends

Union Berlin ❌ ❌ ✅ ⚪ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 6)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 3)

Holstein Kiel ❌ ❌ ⚪ ❌ ⚪

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Bochum (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Union Berlin

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.89
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.30
# Clean Sheets: 2

Holstein Kiel

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.12
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.71
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Union Berlin and Holstein Kiel is anticipated to be a decisive one, with Union Berlin having an overwhelming 89.0% probability of securing a victory. This prediction is bolstered by their superior league standing, currently occupying the 13th position, compared to Holstein Kiel's position at the bottom in 18th place. Additionally, the match is expected to be a high-scoring affair with a 56.0% chance of exceeding 2.5 goals.

Match Analysis

Union Berlin's recent form has been a mixed bag, with a significant victory against Hoffenheim where they netted four goals without reply, hinting at their potential to deliver under pressure. However, they faced setbacks against Dortmund and M'gladbach, demonstrating inconsistency. Their defensive record has been relatively stable, with two clean sheets in their last five matches. Their expected goals metrics, scoring at 1.886 and conceding at 1.3039999999999998, suggest a promising offensive capability that could be pivotal in this fixture. Holstein Kiel, meanwhile, is in a precarious position, languishing at the bottom of the table. Their recent performances haven't boosted their survival chances, having lost to Leverkusen and Ein Frankfurt and only managing a draw against Bochum. Despite scoring 1.8 goals on average in their last five games, their defense remains their Achilles' heel, conceding 3.2 goals on average. This defensive frailty will be under scrutiny against Union Berlin, especially given their lack of clean sheets recently.

Final Prediction

Union Berlin's predicted victory is supported by their stronger league position and recent show of offensive strength, particularly evident in their emphatic win against Hoffenheim. Holstein Kiel's vulnerability at the back could be exploited by Union Berlin, especially given their higher expected goals metric. A key factor to watch during the game will be Union Berlin's attacking play against a susceptible Holstein Kiel defense, which could determine the final outcome.