Bundesliga 2024-2025: St Pauli vs Hoffenheim Prediction

St Pauli

Home Team
51%
VS

Hoffenheim

Away Team
25%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 25 19 4 2 74 23 51 61
2 Leverkusen 25 15 8 2 55 30 25 53
3 Mainz 25 13 5 7 42 26 16 44
4 Ein Frankfurt 25 12 6 7 51 39 12 42
5 Freiburg 25 12 5 8 34 36 -2 41
6 RB Leipzig 25 10 9 6 39 33 6 39
7 Wolfsburg 25 10 8 7 49 39 10 38
8 Stuttgart 25 10 7 8 44 39 5 37
9 M'gladbach 25 11 4 10 39 38 1 37
10 Dortmund 25 10 5 10 45 39 6 35
11 Augsburg 25 9 8 8 28 35 -7 35
12 Werder Bremen 25 9 6 10 38 49 -11 33
13 Hoffenheim 25 6 8 11 32 47 -15 26
14 Union Berlin 25 7 5 13 22 38 -16 26
15 St Pauli 25 6 4 15 19 30 -11 22
16 Bochum 25 5 5 15 26 49 -23 20
17 Holstein Kiel 25 4 5 16 37 61 -24 17
18 Heidenheim 25 4 4 17 28 51 -23 16

Recent Trends

St Pauli ⚪ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Mainz (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 2)

Hoffenheim ⚪ ✅ ⚪ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Bochum (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

St Pauli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.06
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.38
# Clean Sheets: 0

Hoffenheim

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.11
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.67
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between St Pauli and Hoffenheim sees St Pauli as the slight favorite, with a 51.0% probability of securing a home victory. Hoffenheim's chances of winning stand at 25.0%, with the likelihood of a draw also at 25.0%. The teams' current standings highlight St Pauli's precarious position at 15th in the Bundesliga, while Hoffenheim sits slightly higher at 13th. The game is expected to have fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 47.0% probability, suggesting a potentially low-scoring encounter.

Match Analysis

St Pauli's recent performances have been challenging, with their last three games resulting in two losses and a draw. They managed to secure a 1-1 draw against Wolfsburg away but struggled at home against Dortmund and away against Mainz, failing to score in both games. The team's advanced metrics reveal a modest average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per game over their last five matches, indicating a need to improve their attacking prowess and defensive solidity. Hoffenheim, on the other hand, has demonstrated slightly better form, with a victory against Bochum and draws against Heidenheim and Stuttgart. Their recent results show an average of 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per game over the last five matches, highlighting a more prolific attack than St Pauli. However, their defense remains a concern with frequent concessions. Hoffenheim's ability to score is further supported by an average expected goals tally of 1.106, which could pose problems for St Pauli's defense.

Final Prediction

St Pauli's edge over Hoffenheim can be attributed to their home advantage and slight statistical superiority. Despite their struggles, St Pauli might capitalize on Hoffenheim's defensive vulnerabilities. A key factor to watch will be how each team's defense holds up against their opponent's attacking threats, which could ultimately determine the game's outcome.