Bundesliga 2024-2025: St Pauli vs Dortmund Prediction

St Pauli

Home Team
10%
VS

Dortmund

Away Team
80%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 23 18 4 1 69 19 50 58
2 Leverkusen 23 14 8 1 51 27 24 50
3 Ein Frankfurt 23 12 6 5 49 33 16 42
4 Freiburg 23 12 3 8 34 36 -2 39
5 Mainz 23 11 5 7 37 24 13 38
6 RB Leipzig 23 10 8 5 38 31 7 38
7 Stuttgart 23 10 6 7 41 34 7 36
8 Wolfsburg 23 9 7 7 46 37 9 34
9 M'gladbach 23 10 4 9 35 35 0 34
10 Dortmund 23 9 5 9 43 38 5 32
11 Augsburg 23 8 7 8 27 35 -8 31
12 Werder Bremen 23 8 6 9 35 47 -12 30
13 Union Berlin 23 6 6 11 21 35 -14 24
14 Hoffenheim 23 5 7 11 30 46 -16 22
15 St Pauli 23 6 3 14 18 27 -9 21
16 Heidenheim 23 4 3 16 27 47 -20 15
17 Bochum 23 3 6 14 22 47 -25 15
18 Holstein Kiel 23 3 4 16 34 59 -25 13

Recent Trends

St Pauli ❌ ❌ ❌ ⚪ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Mainz (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 0)

Dortmund ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Union Berlin (Goals: 6 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Bochum (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

St Pauli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.10
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.13
# Clean Sheets: 1

Dortmund

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.91
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.97
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between St Pauli and Dortmund is predicted to lean heavily in favor of the visiting Dortmund, with an 80% probability of an away victory. Meanwhile, St Pauli faces a challenging 10% chance of securing a home win. With both teams experiencing fluctuating performances recently, the match is expected to surpass 2.5 goals, with a 51% probability indicating a high-scoring affair. In the current Bundesliga standings, Dortmund sits in 10th position, while St Pauli is struggling at 15th, teetering near the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

St Pauli enters this fixture on the back of a tough run, having lost all three of their recent encounters against Mainz, Freiburg, and RB Leipzig without finding the back of the net. Their inability to score, coupled with conceding a total of five goals across these matches, highlights their current struggles. Despite their average expected goals being slightly over 1.1, their actual scoring rate is a concerning 0.8 goals per match. This paints a picture of a team struggling to convert opportunities into tangible results. Conversely, Dortmund's recent form is mixed, with a dominant 6-0 victory over Union Berlin showcasing their attacking potential. However, this was sandwiched between losses to Bochum and Stuttgart, where defensive frailties were exposed, conceding four goals across those two games. Dortmund's attacking prowess is evident in their average of 1.4 goals per game, supported by an expected goals tally of nearly 1.9, indicating their ability to create and capitalize on chances. Yet, their defense remains suspect, allowing an average of two goals per game, a statistic that St Pauli could potentially exploit.

Final Prediction

Dortmund's attacking capabilities give them a significant edge in this matchup against a St Pauli side struggling to find form. Their recent demolition of Union Berlin highlights their potential to score freely, an aspect that could be pivotal in this encounter. For fans watching closely, Dortmund's ability to maintain defensive solidity will be crucial, as any lapses could provide St Pauli with a lifeline in their daunting quest to overturn the odds.