Bundesliga 2024-2025: RB Leipzig vs Mainz Prediction

RB Leipzig

Home Team
65%
VS

Mainz

Away Team
16%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 23 18 4 1 69 19 50 58
2 Leverkusen 23 14 8 1 51 27 24 50
3 Ein Frankfurt 23 12 6 5 49 33 16 42
4 Freiburg 23 12 3 8 34 36 -2 39
5 Mainz 23 11 5 7 37 24 13 38
6 RB Leipzig 23 10 8 5 38 31 7 38
7 Stuttgart 23 10 6 7 41 34 7 36
8 Wolfsburg 23 9 7 7 46 37 9 34
9 M'gladbach 23 10 4 9 35 35 0 34
10 Dortmund 23 9 5 9 43 38 5 32
11 Augsburg 23 8 7 8 27 35 -8 31
12 Werder Bremen 23 8 6 9 35 47 -12 30
13 Union Berlin 23 6 6 11 21 35 -14 24
14 Hoffenheim 23 5 7 11 30 46 -16 22
15 St Pauli 23 6 3 14 18 27 -9 21
16 Heidenheim 23 4 3 16 27 47 -20 15
17 Bochum 23 3 6 14 22 47 -25 15
18 Holstein Kiel 23 3 4 16 34 59 -25 13

Recent Trends

RB Leipzig ⚪ ⚪ ✅ ⚪ ⚪

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Leverkusen (Goals: 2 - 2)

Mainz ✅ ✅ ⚪ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

RB Leipzig

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.88
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.26
# Clean Sheets: 3

Mainz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.14
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.03
# Clean Sheets: 4

Key Prediction Insights

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash between RB Leipzig and Mainz, the prediction leans heavily in favor of the home team, RB Leipzig, with a 65.0% chance of securing a victory. Meanwhile, Mainz's chances are pegged at a modest 16.0%, with a draw probability of 19.0%. The game is expected to have under 2.5 goals, with a 47.0% probability supporting this. Currently, Mainz and RB Leipzig are neck-and-neck in the standings, occupying the 5th and 6th positions, respectively, both with 38 points.

Match Analysis

RB Leipzig's recent performances have been a mixed bag, showcasing both resilience and room for improvement. They come into this fixture on the back of a 2-2 draw against Heidenheim and a goalless draw against Augsburg, followed by a 2-0 home win over St Pauli. Their recent form has seen them scoring an average of 2.4 goals per game while conceding 1.4. Despite the occasional defensive lapse, they have managed three clean sheets in their last five outings, underlining a solid backline when on form. Conversely, Mainz has been in impressive form, especially defensively. They have secured two consecutive 2-0 victories against St Pauli and Heidenheim, followed by a goalless draw with Augsburg. Mainz has demonstrated defensive solidity with four clean sheets in their last five matches. However, their attack has been less prolific, averaging just 1.2 goals per game, which could be a limiting factor against a potent Leipzig side.

Final Prediction

RB Leipzig's edge in this encounter stems from their superior offensive capabilities, evidenced by a higher average of goals scored and expected goals. Mainz's defensive resilience will be tested against Leipzig's attacking prowess. A key factor to watch will be Leipzig's ability to break down Mainz's tight defense, which could prove decisive in the outcome of this match.