Bundesliga 2024-2025: Mainz vs St Pauli Prediction
Mainz
Home Team
70%
VS
St Pauli
Away Team
14%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5:
50%
Under 2.5:
50%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 22 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 65 | 19 | 46 | 55 |
| 2 | Leverkusen | 22 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 47 |
| 3 | Ein Frankfurt | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 29 | 20 | 42 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 37 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 36 |
| 6 | Mainz | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 24 | 11 | 35 |
| 7 | Stuttgart | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 35 |
| 8 | M'gladbach | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 32 | 3 | 34 |
| 9 | Wolfsburg | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 33 |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 30 |
| 11 | Dortmund | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 29 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 28 |
| 13 | Union Berlin | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 24 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 21 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 21 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 25 | 45 | -20 | 14 |
| 17 | Bochum | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 21 | 46 | -25 | 14 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 13 |
Recent Trends
Mainz
- Last Match: vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 2)
St Pauli
- Last Match: vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Mainz
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.04
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.74
# Clean Sheets:
3
St Pauli
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.77
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.56
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
Mainz is predicted to win against St Pauli with a 70% probability, making them clear favorites in this Bundesliga encounter. Currently, Mainz is positioned 6th in the league while St Pauli is struggling at 14th. The likelihood of the match having fewer than 2.5 goals is set at 50%, suggesting a potentially tight contest.
Match Analysis
Mainz has displayed mixed form in their last three matches, collecting a win, a draw, and a loss. They secured a 2-0 victory away at Heidenheim, but were unable to break through Augsburg's defense at home, ending in a goalless draw. A narrow 1-0 defeat against Werder Bremen rounded off this recent spell. Despite this inconsistency, Mainz's defense has been resilient, keeping three clean sheets in their last five outings. Their advanced metrics show an average of 1.6 goals scored and 0.2 goals conceded per game, indicating a strong defensive unit.
On the flip side, St Pauli has had a tougher run, failing to secure a win in their last three games. They were defeated 1-0 by Freiburg at home and suffered a 2-0 loss away to RB Leipzig. A 1-1 draw against Augsburg offered some respite but highlighted their ongoing struggle to find the back of the net. St Pauli's metrics reflect their challenges, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match. Although they have managed two clean sheets in their last five games, they still seem to lack the offensive firepower needed to secure victories.
Final Prediction
Mainz holds a significant advantage going into this match due to their solid defensive performances and higher league standing. Their ability to limit opponents' scoring opportunities could be crucial against a St Pauli side that has struggled to score. Keep an eye on Mainz's defensive organization as it could be the key factor in ensuring their predicted win.