Bundesliga 2024-2025: Mainz vs Holstein Kiel Prediction

Mainz

Home Team
84%
VS

Holstein Kiel

Away Team
7%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 27 20 5 2 78 26 52 65
2 Leverkusen 27 17 8 2 62 34 28 59
3 Ein Frankfurt 27 14 6 7 55 40 15 48
4 Mainz 27 13 6 8 45 31 14 45
5 M'gladbach 27 13 4 10 44 40 4 43
6 RB Leipzig 27 11 9 7 41 34 7 42
7 Freiburg 27 12 6 9 37 40 -3 42
8 Augsburg 27 10 9 8 30 36 -6 39
9 Wolfsburg 27 10 8 9 49 41 8 38
10 Dortmund 27 11 5 11 48 42 6 38
11 Stuttgart 27 10 7 10 47 44 3 37
12 Werder Bremen 27 10 6 11 43 53 -10 36
13 Union Berlin 27 8 6 13 25 40 -15 30
14 Hoffenheim 27 6 9 12 33 49 -16 27
15 St Pauli 27 7 4 16 22 33 -11 25
16 Heidenheim 27 6 4 17 32 52 -20 22
17 Bochum 27 5 5 17 28 55 -27 20
18 Holstein Kiel 27 4 5 18 38 67 -29 17

Recent Trends

Mainz ❌ ⚪ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Freiburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 0)

Holstein Kiel ❌ ❌ ⚪ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mainz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.73
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.14
# Clean Sheets: 1

Holstein Kiel

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.09
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.61
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Mainz and Holstein Kiel is heavily tilted in favor of the home team, with an 84% probability of a Mainz victory. Holstein Kiel, languishing at the bottom of the Bundesliga standings, faces a meager 7% chance of upsetting the odds. The game is predicted to have over 2.5 goals, with a 55% probability, hinting at an exciting encounter. Mainz currently holds the 4th position in the league, eyeing a Champions League spot, while Holstein Kiel is battling relegation, sitting at the very bottom.

Match Analysis

Mainz has shown a mixed bag of results in their last three outings. They started with a loss against Dortmund away from home, where they conceded three goals and managed to score just one. However, they bounced back with a home draw against Freiburg, netting twice and showing resilience. Their most recent triumph came on the road against M'gladbach, where they scored three and conceded just once, demonstrating their capability to score and defend effectively. On the other hand, Holstein Kiel has struggled in recent fixtures, failing to secure a win. A defeat to Werder Bremen at home saw them concede three goals without reply. They followed up with another loss against Heidenheim, and a draw against Stuttgart, allowing two goals in the latter. Their defensive frailties are evident, conceding an average of 2.4 goals over the last five games, compared to Mainz's more robust defense.

Final Prediction

Mainz holds a significant advantage given their superior form and standing in the league. Their ability to both score and keep a tight defense provides them with the upper hand. A key factor to watch in this match will be Mainz's offensive firepower, which could prove too much for Holstein Kiel's vulnerable defense. With the stakes high for both teams, Mainz's quest for a Champions League spot and Holstein Kiel's battle against relegation promise an engaging spectacle.