Bundesliga 2024-2025: Mainz vs Freiburg Prediction
Mainz
Home Team
59%
VS
Freiburg
Away Team
20%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5:
57%
Under 2.5:
43%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 25 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 74 | 23 | 51 | 61 |
| 2 | Leverkusen | 25 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 55 | 30 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Mainz | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 44 |
| 4 | Ein Frankfurt | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 42 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 41 |
| 6 | RB Leipzig | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 39 |
| 7 | Wolfsburg | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 38 |
| 8 | Stuttgart | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 37 |
| 9 | M'gladbach | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 39 | 38 | 1 | 37 |
| 10 | Dortmund | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 39 | 6 | 35 |
| 11 | Augsburg | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 35 |
| 12 | Werder Bremen | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 33 |
| 13 | Hoffenheim | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 26 |
| 14 | Union Berlin | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 26 |
| 15 | St Pauli | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 22 |
| 16 | Bochum | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 26 | 49 | -23 | 20 |
| 17 | Holstein Kiel | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 37 | 61 | -24 | 17 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 28 | 51 | -23 | 16 |
Recent Trends
Mainz
- Last Match: vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
Freiburg
- Last Match: vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 5 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Mainz
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.79
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.75
# Clean Sheets:
3
Freiburg
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.23
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.67
# Clean Sheets:
5
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming Bundesliga clash between Mainz and Freiburg is predicted to lean in favor of the home team, Mainz, with a 59.0% probability of victory. The game is also likely to be a high-scoring affair, with a 57.0% chance of seeing over 2.5 goals. Currently, Mainz holds a strong position in the league standings at 3rd place, while Freiburg trails closely behind in 5th place.
Match Analysis
Mainz comes into this fixture on a remarkable run, having secured victories in their last three matches. Their recent wins against M'gladbach, RB Leipzig, and St Pauli demonstrate their attacking prowess and defensive solidity, conceding only 2 goals while scoring 7. The advanced metrics show Mainz averaging 1.6 goals per game and maintaining an impressive average of just 0.2 goals conceded. Their ability to keep clean sheets in three of their last five matches further underscores their defensive strength, making them a formidable opponent.
Freiburg, on the other hand, has had a more mixed set of results in recent outings. They managed a dominant 5-0 victory over Werder Bremen but were held to goalless draws against both RB Leipzig and Augsburg. Freiburg's advanced metrics reveal a lower goal-scoring average of 0.6 goals per game while conceding an average of 1.6 goals. Despite this, Freiburg has shown resilience in defense, keeping clean sheets in all three of their recent matches, indicating a possible focus on defensive stability.
Final Prediction
Mainz's current form and their solid defense give them the edge in this encounter. Their ability to both score and prevent goals positions them well to secure a victory against Freiburg. A key factor to watch will be Mainz's offensive execution against Freiburg's resilient defense, which could prove decisive in determining the outcome of this match.