Bundesliga 2024-2025: M'gladbach vs RB Leipzig Prediction

M'gladbach

Home Team
36%
VS

RB Leipzig

Away Team
38%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 26 19 5 2 75 24 51 62
2 Leverkusen 26 16 8 2 59 33 26 56
3 Mainz 26 13 6 7 44 28 16 45
4 Ein Frankfurt 26 13 6 7 54 40 14 45
5 RB Leipzig 26 11 9 6 41 33 8 42
6 Freiburg 26 12 6 8 36 38 -2 42
7 M'gladbach 26 12 4 10 43 40 3 40
8 Wolfsburg 26 10 8 8 49 40 9 38
9 Augsburg 26 10 8 8 29 35 -6 38
10 Stuttgart 26 10 7 9 47 43 4 37
11 Dortmund 26 10 5 11 45 41 4 35
12 Werder Bremen 26 9 6 11 40 53 -13 33
13 Union Berlin 26 7 6 13 23 39 -16 27
14 Hoffenheim 26 6 8 12 32 48 -16 26
15 St Pauli 26 7 4 15 20 30 -10 25
16 Bochum 26 5 5 16 27 52 -25 20
17 Heidenheim 26 5 4 17 31 52 -21 19
18 Holstein Kiel 26 4 5 17 38 64 -26 17

Recent Trends

M'gladbach ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Union Berlin (Goals: 2 - 1)

RB Leipzig ✅ ⚪ ❌ ⚪ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

M'gladbach

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.20
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.30
# Clean Sheets: 1

RB Leipzig

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.40
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.70
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Bundesliga clash between M'gladbach and RB Leipzig is expected to be a closely contested affair. The probability of RB Leipzig securing a victory stands at 38.0%, slightly higher than M'gladbach's 36.0% chance of winning. The match has a 25.0% chance of ending in a draw. With both teams currently fighting for a place in European competitions, M'gladbach sits in 7th place with 40 points, while RB Leipzig is a tad ahead in 5th with 42 points. The likelihood of a high-scoring match is significant, with a 62.0% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored.

Match Analysis

Both teams have shown mixed form in their recent performances. M'gladbach comes into this match with a victory over Werder Bremen on the road, having scored four goals and conceded two. However, they suffered a home defeat to Mainz before bouncing back with a win against Heidenheim, where they kept a clean sheet. This inconsistency is reflected in their advanced metrics, as they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded over their last five matches, with just one clean sheet in that span. RB Leipzig, meanwhile, has demonstrated defensive solidity with three clean sheets in their last five games. They secured a 2-0 victory against Dortmund but were held to a goalless draw by Freiburg and faced a narrow defeat to Mainz. Leipzig's attack has been somewhat muted, averaging 0.8 goals per game recently, but their expected goals metrics suggest a potential for improvement, with 1.404 expected goals per game.

Final Prediction

RB Leipzig's edge in this matchup could stem from their stronger defensive performances and slightly higher win probability. Their ability to keep clean sheets, coupled with M'gladbach's inconsistency, may give them a slight advantage. A key factor to watch will be whether Leipzig can convert their expected goals into actual goals, which could be crucial in swinging the game in their favor.