Bundesliga 2024-2025: M'gladbach vs Freiburg Prediction

M'gladbach

Home Team
38%
VS

Freiburg

Away Team
38%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 66%
Under 2.5: 34%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 28 21 5 2 81 27 54 68
2 Leverkusen 28 18 8 2 63 34 29 62
3 Ein Frankfurt 28 14 6 8 55 42 13 48
4 Mainz 28 13 7 8 46 32 14 46
5 RB Leipzig 28 12 9 7 44 35 9 45
6 M'gladbach 28 13 5 10 45 41 4 44
7 Freiburg 28 12 6 10 38 44 -6 42
8 Dortmund 28 12 5 11 52 43 9 41
9 Stuttgart 28 11 7 10 51 44 7 40
10 Werder Bremen 28 11 6 11 45 53 -8 39
11 Augsburg 28 10 9 9 31 39 -8 39
12 Wolfsburg 28 10 8 10 49 42 7 38
13 Union Berlin 28 9 6 13 26 40 -14 33
14 Hoffenheim 28 6 9 13 34 52 -18 27
15 St Pauli 28 7 5 16 23 34 -11 26
16 Heidenheim 28 6 4 18 32 53 -21 22
17 Bochum 28 5 5 18 28 59 -31 20
18 Holstein Kiel 28 4 6 18 39 68 -29 18

Recent Trends

M'gladbach ⚪ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 0)

Freiburg ❌ ❌ ⚪ ⚪ ⚪

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Mainz (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

M'gladbach

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.49
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.59
# Clean Sheets: 2

Freiburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.70
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.37
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between M'gladbach and Freiburg promises to be a closely contested affair, with both teams having an equal probability of winning at 38.0%. The likelihood of the match resulting in a draw stands at 23.0%. With M'gladbach occupying the 6th position and Freiburg closely trailing in 7th place in the Bundesliga standings, the stakes are high for both sides looking to climb the league table. The game is also expected to see over 2.5 goals, with a probability of 66.0%.

Match Analysis

M'gladbach comes into this match with a mix of results from their last three games. They managed a draw against St Pauli away, followed by a solid victory at home against RB Leipzig, and an impressive away win over Werder Bremen with a score of 4-2. This recent form indicates a positive trend, especially in their offensive capabilities, scoring six goals across these fixtures. The team has been averaging 1.2 goals per game in their last five, with a slightly higher expected goal rate of 1.49, suggesting they might be underperforming slightly in front of goal. On the other hand, Freiburg's recent performances have been less encouraging. They suffered consecutive home defeats against Dortmund and Union Berlin, conceding a total of six goals in those two matches. However, they managed to salvage a draw against Mainz away, showing some resilience. Freiburg has struggled to find the back of the net consistently, with an average of 0.8 goals per game in their last five outings. Despite this, their expected goals metric is higher at 1.7, indicating potential for improvement in their attacking play. Defensively, they have been conceding 1.2 goals on average but maintaining two clean sheets in the last five matches.

Final Prediction

M'gladbach's recent form gives them a slight edge going into this encounter, particularly with their ability to score multiple goals in recent matches. Their home advantage could also play a crucial role in securing a victory. A key factor to watch will be how Freiburg responds after their recent setbacks, especially in shoring up their defense against M'gladbach's attacking threats. With both teams evenly matched in league standings and probabilities, this game is set to be an exciting battle for points.