Bundesliga 2024-2025: Holstein Kiel vs St Pauli Prediction

Holstein Kiel

Home Team
21%
VS

St Pauli

Away Team
62%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 28 21 5 2 81 27 54 68
2 Leverkusen 28 18 8 2 63 34 29 62
3 Ein Frankfurt 28 14 6 8 55 42 13 48
4 Mainz 28 13 7 8 46 32 14 46
5 RB Leipzig 28 12 9 7 44 35 9 45
6 M'gladbach 28 13 5 10 45 41 4 44
7 Freiburg 28 12 6 10 38 44 -6 42
8 Dortmund 28 12 5 11 52 43 9 41
9 Stuttgart 28 11 7 10 51 44 7 40
10 Werder Bremen 28 11 6 11 45 53 -8 39
11 Augsburg 28 10 9 9 31 39 -8 39
12 Wolfsburg 28 10 8 10 49 42 7 38
13 Union Berlin 28 9 6 13 26 40 -14 33
14 Hoffenheim 28 6 9 13 34 52 -18 27
15 St Pauli 28 7 5 16 23 34 -11 26
16 Heidenheim 28 6 4 18 32 53 -21 22
17 Bochum 28 5 5 18 28 59 -31 20
18 Holstein Kiel 28 4 6 18 39 68 -29 18

Recent Trends

Holstein Kiel ⚪ ❌ ❌ ⚪ ✅

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 0)

St Pauli ⚪ ❌ ✅ ⚪ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Holstein Kiel

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.18
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.44
# Clean Sheets: 1

St Pauli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.19
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.03
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash, St Pauli is the favored side with a 62.0% chance of securing victory against Holstein Kiel, who have a mere 21.0% chance of winning. The probability of a draw stands at 17.0%. Additionally, there's a 53.0% likelihood that the match will feature more than 2.5 goals. Currently, St Pauli sits in 15th place while Holstein Kiel is anchored at the bottom of the table in 18th position, making this match a crucial battle in the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Holstein Kiel has faced a challenging spell in their recent fixtures, amassing only one point from their last three games. They managed a draw away to Mainz but were defeated by Werder Bremen and Heidenheim, conceding a total of seven goals in these matches. Holstein's defensive fragility is evident as they have conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game in their last five outings. Their expected goals figures suggest they create decent chances but lack the finishing touch to convert them into results. St Pauli, on the other hand, has shown some resilience with a mix of results. They earned a commendable draw against M'gladbach and narrowly lost to league leaders Bayern Munich, which demonstrates their ability to compete against stronger opposition. Their recent victory over Hoffenheim, courtesy of a clean sheet, highlights a slight defensive improvement. St Pauli scores and concedes an average of one and 1.6 goals per game respectively, indicating a relatively balanced setup that could exploit Holstein Kiel's defensive weaknesses.

Final Prediction

St Pauli holds the upper hand in this encounter, primarily due to their slightly more consistent performances and defensive capabilities. Their recent form against tougher opponents bodes well for a favorable result against bottom-placed Holstein Kiel. A key factor to watch will be St Pauli's ability to maintain their defensive solidity while capitalizing on the scoring opportunities against a vulnerable Holstein Kiel defense.