Bundesliga 2024-2025: Hoffenheim vs Mainz Prediction

Hoffenheim

Home Team
38%
VS

Mainz

Away Team
39%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 28 21 5 2 81 27 54 68
2 Leverkusen 28 18 8 2 63 34 29 62
3 Ein Frankfurt 28 14 6 8 55 42 13 48
4 Mainz 28 13 7 8 46 32 14 46
5 RB Leipzig 28 12 9 7 44 35 9 45
6 M'gladbach 28 13 5 10 45 41 4 44
7 Freiburg 28 12 6 10 38 44 -6 42
8 Dortmund 28 12 5 11 52 43 9 41
9 Stuttgart 28 11 7 10 51 44 7 40
10 Werder Bremen 28 11 6 11 45 53 -8 39
11 Augsburg 28 10 9 9 31 39 -8 39
12 Wolfsburg 28 10 8 10 49 42 7 38
13 Union Berlin 28 9 6 13 26 40 -14 33
14 Hoffenheim 28 6 9 13 34 52 -18 27
15 St Pauli 28 7 5 16 23 34 -11 26
16 Heidenheim 28 6 4 18 32 53 -21 22
17 Bochum 28 5 5 18 28 59 -31 20
18 Holstein Kiel 28 4 6 18 39 68 -29 18

Recent Trends

Hoffenheim ❌ ⚪ ❌ ⚪ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Bochum (Goals: 1 - 0)

Mainz ⚪ ❌ ⚪ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Holstein Kiel (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Freiburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hoffenheim

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.53
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.57
# Clean Sheets: 1

Mainz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.45
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.78
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash, Mainz holds a slight edge with a 39.0% probability of securing a victory over Hoffenheim, who have a 38.0% chance of winning at home. The match is expected to be high-scoring, with a 64.0% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored. Mainz, currently in fourth place, is vying for a Champions League spot, while Hoffenheim sits in a precarious 14th position, just above the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Hoffenheim's recent form has been less than impressive, with a loss to RB Leipzig, a draw against Augsburg, and a narrow defeat to St Pauli. Their inability to secure a win in these crucial matches has left them struggling near the bottom of the table. Hoffenheim's defensive frailties are evident, as they have conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game in their last five outings, with only one clean sheet, indicating a vulnerability that Mainz might exploit. In contrast, Mainz, while not in stellar form, have managed to maintain some consistency, with draws against Holstein Kiel and Freiburg, and a loss to Dortmund. They have been more proficient in front of goal, averaging 1.6 goals scored per game over their last five matches. Mainz's defense, although not impervious, has been relatively solid, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game. Their ability to score consistently could prove pivotal against Hoffenheim's leaky defense.

Final Prediction

Mainz's slight advantage in the prediction is supported by their more robust recent performances and their higher league standing. Their ability to find the net consistently gives them an edge over a struggling Hoffenheim side. A key factor to watch during the game will be Mainz's attacking prowess against Hoffenheim's defense, which could determine the outcome of this clash.