Bundesliga 2024-2025: Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Prediction
Freiburg
Home Team
68%
VS
Werder Bremen
Away Team
16%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5:
49%
Under 2.5:
51%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 22 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 65 | 19 | 46 | 55 |
| 2 | Leverkusen | 22 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 47 |
| 3 | Ein Frankfurt | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 29 | 20 | 42 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 37 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 36 |
| 6 | Mainz | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 24 | 11 | 35 |
| 7 | Stuttgart | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 35 |
| 8 | M'gladbach | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 32 | 3 | 34 |
| 9 | Wolfsburg | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 33 |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 30 |
| 11 | Dortmund | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 29 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 28 |
| 13 | Union Berlin | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 24 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 21 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 21 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 25 | 45 | -20 | 14 |
| 17 | Bochum | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 21 | 46 | -25 | 14 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 13 |
Recent Trends
Freiburg
- Last Match: vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Bochum (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 4)
Werder Bremen
- Last Match: vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Freiburg
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.49
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.20
# Clean Sheets:
3
Werder Bremen
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.96
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.06
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
Freiburg is predicted to win against Werder Bremen, with a significant probability of 68.00%. The match is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 49.00% probability. Freiburg currently stands at 5th place in the Bundesliga standings, while Werder Bremen is positioned at 10th.
Match Analysis
Freiburg is riding high on a three-game winning streak, having secured consecutive 1-0 victories against St Pauli, Heidenheim, and Bochum. This impressive run includes two away wins and one at home, demonstrating their strong form both on the road and at the Schwarzwald-Stadion. The team has also managed to keep clean sheets in all three matches, highlighting their defensive solidity.
Conversely, Werder Bremen's recent form has been inconsistent, with one win and two losses in their last three encounters. They suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat against Bayern Munich and a 3-1 loss to Hoffenheim but managed a narrow 1-0 victory over Mainz at home. Their defensive frailties are evident, having conceded a total of seven goals in these matches.
Freiburg's advanced metrics further underscore their current edge. They have an average of 2.2 goals scored in their last five games, while only conceding 1.4 goals on average. Their expected goals metrics also show a positive trend, with 1.494 expected goals scored per game. Meanwhile, Werder Bremen has struggled defensively, with an average of 1.8 goals conceded per game and a higher expected goals against metric of 2.06, indicating vulnerabilities that Freiburg could exploit.
Final Prediction
Freiburg’s recent form and defensive prowess give them a clear advantage over Werder Bremen in this matchup. Their ability to maintain clean sheets and capitalize on scoring opportunities positions them favorably to secure a win. A key factor to watch will be Freiburg's defensive setup, which could be crucial in maintaining their winning streak and continuing their climb in the Bundesliga standings.