Bundesliga 2024-2025: Dortmund vs Union Berlin Prediction

Dortmund

Home Team
62%
VS

Union Berlin

Away Team
18%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 22 17 4 1 65 19 46 55
2 Leverkusen 22 13 8 1 49 27 22 47
3 Ein Frankfurt 22 12 6 4 49 29 20 42
4 RB Leipzig 22 10 7 5 36 29 7 37
5 Freiburg 22 11 3 8 29 36 -7 36
6 Mainz 22 10 5 7 35 24 11 35
7 Stuttgart 22 10 5 7 40 33 7 35
8 M'gladbach 22 10 4 8 35 32 3 34
9 Wolfsburg 22 9 6 7 45 36 9 33
10 Werder Bremen 22 8 6 8 35 42 -7 30
11 Dortmund 22 8 5 9 37 38 -1 29
12 Augsburg 22 7 7 8 24 35 -11 28
13 Union Berlin 22 6 6 10 21 29 -8 24
14 St Pauli 22 6 3 13 18 25 -7 21
15 Hoffenheim 22 5 6 11 29 45 -16 21
16 Heidenheim 22 4 2 16 25 45 -20 14
17 Bochum 22 3 5 14 21 46 -25 14
18 Holstein Kiel 22 3 4 15 34 57 -23 13

Recent Trends

Dortmund ❌ ❌ ✅ ⚪ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Bochum (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 2)

Union Berlin ❌ ✅ ⚪ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Mainz (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Dortmund

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.01
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.32
# Clean Sheets: 0

Union Berlin

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.88
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.72
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Dortmund and Union Berlin is predicted to end with a home victory for Dortmund, who hold a 62.00% probability of winning. The likelihood of seeing over 2.5 goals in this match is pegged at 55.00%. Dortmund currently sits at 11th place in the Bundesliga standings, while Union Berlin is positioned 13th, both teams looking to climb the table.

Match Analysis

Dortmund's recent form has been inconsistent, with a record of one win and two losses in their last three matches. They suffered a setback against Bochum away (0-2) and a narrow defeat at home to Stuttgart (1-2), but managed to secure a victory against Heidenheim (2-1) on the road. Despite these mixed results, Dortmund have been struggling defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game in their last five encounters, while managing to find the back of the net 1.4 times on average. Union Berlin, on the other hand, have shown a similar pattern with a win, a draw, and a loss in their recent outings. They were defeated by M'gladbach at home (1-2), but delivered a commanding performance away against Hoffenheim (4-0), and held RB Leipzig to a scoreless draw. Although they have conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last five matches, Union Berlin boasts a higher expected goals scored average of 1.878, hinting at their attacking potential.

Final Prediction

Dortmund's edge in this matchup mainly stems from their home advantage and the statistical likelihood of a victory. However, Union Berlin's capacity to surprise with potent attacking plays, as seen in their recent games, adds an intriguing element to the contest. A key factor to watch will be Dortmund's ability to tighten their defense, which could be pivotal in securing a win against a resilient Union Berlin side.