Bundesliga 2024-2025: Dortmund vs Mainz Prediction

Dortmund

Home Team
79%
VS

Mainz

Away Team
9%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 66%
Under 2.5: 34%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 26 19 5 2 75 24 51 62
2 Leverkusen 26 16 8 2 59 33 26 56
3 Mainz 26 13 6 7 44 28 16 45
4 Ein Frankfurt 26 13 6 7 54 40 14 45
5 RB Leipzig 26 11 9 6 41 33 8 42
6 Freiburg 26 12 6 8 36 38 -2 42
7 M'gladbach 26 12 4 10 43 40 3 40
8 Wolfsburg 26 10 8 8 49 40 9 38
9 Augsburg 26 10 8 8 29 35 -6 38
10 Stuttgart 26 10 7 9 47 43 4 37
11 Dortmund 26 10 5 11 45 41 4 35
12 Werder Bremen 26 9 6 11 40 53 -13 33
13 Union Berlin 26 7 6 13 23 39 -16 27
14 Hoffenheim 26 6 8 12 32 48 -16 26
15 St Pauli 26 7 4 15 20 30 -10 25
16 Bochum 26 5 5 16 27 52 -25 20
17 Heidenheim 26 5 4 17 31 52 -21 19
18 Holstein Kiel 26 4 5 17 38 64 -26 17

Recent Trends

Dortmund ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Union Berlin (Goals: 6 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Bochum (Goals: 0 - 2)

Mainz ⚪ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Freiburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Dortmund

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.12
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.81
# Clean Sheets: 2

Mainz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.60
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.73
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Dortmund and Mainz is heavily tilted in favor of the home team, with a 79.0% probability of victory for Dortmund. The game is also expected to be a high-scoring encounter, with a 66.0% likelihood of having over 2.5 goals. In terms of league standings, Dortmund finds itself in an unusual position, currently sitting 11th, while Mainz is performing admirably at 3rd in the Bundesliga.

Match Analysis

Dortmund's recent form has been inconsistent, with their last three outings comprising a victory against St Pauli, but disappointing losses to RB Leipzig and Augsburg. Despite these setbacks, Dortmund's offensive capabilities remain notable, averaging 2.2 goals per game over their last five matches. Their defense, however, has shown vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game. With two clean sheets in their last five matches, Dortmund has shown glimpses of defensive stability. Mainz, on the other hand, has been in commendable form, securing victories against formidable opponents like M'gladbach and RB Leipzig, and drawing with Freiburg. Their recent performances underscore a balanced approach, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and only 1.0 goals conceded per game over the last five matches. Mainz's defense has been relatively solid, with two clean sheets in the same period, and their expected goals metrics suggest they are creating quality chances.

Final Prediction

Dortmund's predicted edge in this encounter primarily stems from their offensive prowess and home advantage. However, Mainz's current form and defensive solidity make them a formidable opponent. A key factor to watch will be Dortmund's ability to capitalize on their goal-scoring opportunities while maintaining defensive discipline against a resilient Mainz side.